India, international affairs, Politics / Globalisation, Raisina Dialogue

Raisina Chronicles: India’s Global Public Square

S.Jaishankar | Samir Saran

The Raisina Dialogue has become a feature today in the calendars of leaders around the world. It is a must-attend for all who seek to move the needle, disrupt the status quo, defend their beliefs, and create what shall be. India’s flagship conference on geopolitics and geo-economics enters its 10th year. In that time, it has emerged as a global, inclusive, and wide-band forum of international importance, transcending borders and ideologies, ages and agendas, hashtags and echo chambers. It is India’s ‘global public square’—located in New Delhi, incubated by the world. Its purpose is to preserve and promote the often-challenged art of dialogue and of working through differences. In keeping with Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi’s vision of delivering public goods for the benefit of all humanity, it is indeed a platform that serves this planet.

Raisina has been crucial in propelling discourse, nurturing collaboration, and fostering a sense of shared responsibility. It is a venue for celebrating diversity in all its shapes and forms: of thought, of approaches, of beliefs, of politics. It has captured the age-old Indian premise that within us all lies a desire and power to do good. Each view must be heard, and each suggestion must be considered. Pluralism, confabulation and heterogeneity is what makes us resilient and anti-fragile; and what drives the evolution of individuals and of societies. This is India’s own story as well; an enormous diversity that rests on a powerful timeless unity. or this reason, Raisina provides a rare opportunity for leaders and diplomats, scholars and policymakers, journalists and academics, teenagers and seasoned thinkers, business folks and civil society—to all come together to debate, deliberate, disagree, and discover shared futures and common pathways.

Pluralism, confabulation and heterogeneity is what makes us resilient and anti-fragile; and what drives the evolution of individuals and of societies.

On this occasion, we celebrate the Raisina Decade: a period during which the Dialogue has helped build regional partnerships and transcontinental collaborations, while responding to global challenges. For three days every year, it has brought a fractured and polarised world together. This volume chronicles this journey, and reflects on its unique strengths and attributes. And this is best done by bringing together how it is perceived by eminent participants from different parts of the world. These are the thoughts of those who have themselves experienced Raisina and have contributed ideas, who have listened and spoken there and who appreciate the difference it has made.

The Making of Raisina

The imperative of dialogue in polarised times is self-evident. And it has gained salience precisely because the promise of globalisation has been visibly broken. Most have lost faith in the once-inviting prospect of a world where different customs and cultures are welcomed, where different perspectives are appreciated, and where different interests are accepted. This came about because a few were able to ultimately control the process of globalisation at the expense of the many. Global realities were recast in the image of these narrow circles, to suit their interests and needs. What was meant to usher in a brave new world—more diverse and inclusive than the one before—became instead an instrument for manufacturing consent. This has prompted multiple pushbacks. Some intellectual and others political. Its cumulative result is apparent to all today when we see how the global landscape has fragmented.

The flipside of the predicament is the extraordinary concentrations of manufacturing technology and capabilities that emerged to partner these interests. With the passage of time, every aspect of this new dominance is being leveraged. So, it should not come as a surprise that global conversations have also felt its impact. Hierarchies and architectures that had receded with history have resurfaced. And along with them, a different form of discourse and messaging.

The guardians of the international order and the established multilateral frameworks repeat outdated mantras that lack credibility.

The influence on mindsets has also been profound. Anxieties about quality of life and reliability of supply chains have made many societies looking inward. Domestic priorities understandably prevail over international cooperation; individual interests supersede collective endeavours. Meanwhile, the guardians of the international order and the established multilateral frameworks repeat outdated mantras that lack credibility. The truth is that the self-appointed custodians of the world of today are divorced from its continuance. These original architects have also lost the wherewithal to convene all stakeholders and shapers. It was therefore important for new protagonists to step in, contribute and gather. This is why India, under the leadership of its Prime Minister, felt it necessary to invest in a global arena for ideation and deliberation. At the Raisina Dialogue, panels are hosted by leaders in politics, business, media, and civil society. Heads of state and foreign ministers sit next to aspiring engineers and business studies graduates. It is a space where the East and the West, the North and the South, and countless regional competitors can—and do—share a stage. Patience is prioritised over polemic, understanding over assertion, and balance over subjectivity. It is a truly global public square with an Indian postal code.

Offering an India Way

This year, while the world gathers in India for the Raisina Dialogue 2024, the relevance of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam (the world is one family) is increasingly evident. In today’s fractured world, this mantra is a sorely-needed acknowledgement of the inherent unity of humankind and the impact we have on each other. In this context, the India Story resonates in many corners of the globe because of the similarity of problems and the viability of solutions. The deep and persistent development challenges India is addressing offer a template of action for others to adopt and adapt. It is incumbent on India to be generous with sharing its journey, its experiences and learning, its struggles and solutions.

Through its G20 Presidency, India shared with the world a credible synthesis of nationalism and internationalism. This was based on the conviction that a major nation which effectively addresses the needs of its people can only serve humankind better. Certainly, that has been the case with India, whether we think of it as a First Responder, a Pharmacy of the World, an example of Digital Delivery, a source of trusted talent as well as an innovator, manufacturer and a supply chain link. In each case, progress at home was reflected in greater contributions abroad. By ascending the global economic hierarchy with a view to emerge as third by 2028, India is not only transforming the most populous society but also becoming an additional engine of global growth. This is much needed in an era of fairer re-globalisation that is more focused on strategic autonomy. And the challenge of harmonising the local with the global is one that is addressed by drawing on India’s own heritage and outlook.

Every success and failure, every experience and innovation—have relevance for someone somewhere in the world. Raisina is a platform for such discourse, mirroring the innate pluralism of India.

The Raisina Dialogue reflects the conviction that our journeys must be open to all. It advocates an open architecture for governance, for policy, for story-telling. Every success and failure, every experience and innovation—have relevance for someone somewhere in the world. Raisina is a platform for such discourse, mirroring the innate pluralism of India. Consequently, its annual gathering is a meeting ground for a great variety of people, perspectives, and topics.

Why Bharat Matters

The change that we have witnessed in the last decade has not just been a quantitative expansion. This transformation has been one equally of thought processes, self-confidence and self-reliance. It draws on generations of heritage and culture, thereby creating greater self awareness about our identity. There is a greater seriousness too in realising visions and achieving goals. Not least, a clear sense of what we were and are is essential to decide where we want to go. Mediating effectively between tradition and technology has always been key to the quest for modernity. Today, the ability to delineate our own path and expanding our decisional space are characteristics of our progress. The combination of all of these has helped to make India much more Bharat.

Confronted with an uncertain world, this means drawing on our own experiences and arriving at our judgements in the search for solutions. Conflicting pulls and pressures will press us to take positions that may not always be in our best interest. They could be presented as global norms or natural choices. It is here that independent thinking arrived at through detailed discourse can make a difference. When it came to the Indo-Pacific, we embraced a strategic concept that is clearly to our benefit. And joined a mechanism that promoted both global good and national interest. That such steps were a departure from the past was not a discouragement. Similarly, when it came to the Ukraine conflict, we articulated the concerns of a large part of the world on its economic consequences. By contesting a narrative that served a particular region, we were also able to soften the impact on our own people. Bharat means having the courage to be contrary when needed, contributive when required, and confident at all times.

Confronted with an uncertain world, this means drawing on our own experiences and arriving at our judgements in the search for solutions.

Raisina is the venue where such conversations happen. It is the living, dynamic bridge where the world comes to understand us, and where we communicate with the world. Raisina is the vehicle for this dialogue, where the world absorbs Bharat and Bharat in turn shapes the world.

The Raisina Dialectic

The Raisina Dialogue stands out currently as a broad-based forum that engages freely in debate, discussion, and disputation. The coming together of diverse perspectives in a productive collision often results in new insights and solutions. There are particular reasons for the energy and effervescence that characterises its activities. They emanate from its interdisciplinary nature, inclusive participation, equitable agenda and democratic ethos.

Raisina is designed to reap the dividends that flow from the interactions of different disciplines and methods of thinking. Such cross-sectoral discourse is of utmost importance for breaking down silos and enhancing understanding. Diplomats must speak to scholars and academics, while international relations thinkers should engage business leaders. It is common to see leaders in politics, business, media, and civil society share a stage for discussion. Rigid policy conversations are shaken up with the introduction of freer scholarly interventions. This holistic approach makes discussions more complete, more comprehensive, and ultimately more effective.

Inclusiveness is at the heart of the Raisina spirit. The Dialogue welcomes views from across the globe that have not found space in traditional and established arenas. It allows conversations of a different kind because the voices themselves are different: These are younger; they are more diverse; they are from geographies that are often ignored or from institutions which cannot break into the international pecking order. They are more representative of the way the world actually looks. As a result, Raisina becomes a place for discovering new talent, new ideas, new perspectives, new people. It acts a springboard, a gateway, an all-access pass for these new protagonists and narratives to be allowed entry into the traditional forums.

Diplomats must speak to scholars and academics, while international relations thinkers should engage business leaders.

Concerns of equity and fairness pervade the choice of topics for the panel discussions. Most international forums concern themselves with the first billion people of the world. Raisina is that exception where discussions focus on the interests of the next seven billion. Matters of food security are given as much prominence as the battles between tech platforms. Questions of regional development, energy access, public goods, and employment are as important as concerns of war and peace, anti-trust regulation, and the quest for the ideal liberal society. Past empires are now talking back and demanding their place at the table. The Global South has been noticeable in that regard, be it in its self-perception or its self-confidence. Raisina reflects this reality because it has consciously moved beyond privilege. It is not merely an active gathering but also a very contemporary one.

As a Dialogue that is greater than the sum of its parts, its conversations take place, not merely during the three days of the conference but also in the periods before and after. It is a zone where ideas are incubated; where solutions are assessed and reassessed; where visions clash, compete, contest, cooperate. New sentiments are articulated, and outdated perspectives discarded. Discussion is frank and usually honest; they could be provocative but are always constructive. Through its reputation and  impact, this approach is now becoming the new normal.

A Decade of Dialogue

As the Raisina Dialogue enters its tenth year, it is fair to say that we have come a great distance. What started as a hundred people in a room has become India’s premier conference and a forum of international note. This dialogue has captured global imagination precisely because it happens to be in a New India.

The success of Raisina has also been driven by the support, leadership, and commitment of the Indian Government. The Prime Minister himself has made it a point to be present at each inaugural session of the Dialogue since its second edition in 2017 and has delivered an address once in-person and once virtually. By attending the Dialogue but foregoing the microphone, the Prime Minister has reminded the world that many times, to listen is more important than to speak. He has elevated the act of being in a Raisina audience as learning from other experiences, grappling with other perspectives, absorbing the vantage points that others have brought. He has personally demolished the hierarchy between the speaking class on the one hand and the audience members on the other. Raisina is as much about being a listener as it is about being a speaker. It is a reminder that every idea demands careful consideration, that debate is the food for life itself. Where difference is never shunned because it is the basis of working harder to come together.

The Prime Minister himself has made it a point to be present at each inaugural session of the Dialogue since its second edition in 2017 and has delivered an address once in-person and once virtually.

To commemorate a decade of dialogue, this volume brings together essays written by eminent voices from across the world as well as speeches delivered at Raisina by world leaders and heads of states.

Raisina Chronicles opens with a Foreword by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Prime Minister of Greece. Greece and India, both ancient cradles of democracy, are discovering each other again in the 21st century. Mr. Mitsotakis advocates for open discussion as a means to bridge global divisions, proposing the integration of the Indo-Pacific and the Mediterranean as a path towards greater global unity and cooperation.

In her essay, Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Denmark, discusses the interconnected crises facing the planet, encompassing climate, environment, health, and military conflicts. In such a world, the India-Denmark Green Strategic Partnership exemplifies successful collaboration, addressing climate goals and creating a model for global impact. She stresses the importance of global cooperation and of reinvigorating our commitment to tackle shared challenges. In the next piece, Tanja Fajon, Deputy Prime Minister of Slovenia, reflects on the 2023 Raisina Dialogue, praising its diverse discussions on global challenges. She discusses the urgent need for international cooperation, advocating effective multilateralism and UN reform. Lauding the inclusion of youth and women in Raisina discussions, she expresses optimism about India-Slovenia cooperation.

Penny Wong, the Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, stresses the importance of forums like Raisina for strategic thinking amidst escalating security challenges. She underscores Australia’s partnership with India, citing shared history and the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, praising collaborative efforts in economic, climate, and educational initiatives.

In his essay, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Minister of Foreign Affairs in Saudi Arabia, writes about the deep-rooted cultural ties between India and the Arab world, which have now evolved into a robust strategic partnership. Trade relations have flourished, with India being the Kingdom’s second-largest trading partner. He is confident that the Saudi-Indian partnership promises a prosperous future for both nations. Kwame Owino, CEO of the Institute of Economic Affairs, and Jackline Kagume, Constitution, Law and Economy Programme head at IEA, emphasize the African Union’s (AU) admission to the G20 as a significant step for global economic governance. They highlight the AU’s potential for pushing for global institution reforms in an effort to counteract the trend of de-globalization.

Chairman of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, Tadashi Maeda touches upon India’s economic growth, its partnership with Japan, and the significance of the Indo-Pacific region. He stresses enhanced India-Japan cooperation amidst global challenges. Admiral Sir Antony Radakin, the Chief of the Defence Staff of the United Kingdom (U.K.), explores the changing dynamics between the U.K. and India in the 2020s and highlights the U.K.’s interest in the Indo-Pacific; to expanding partnerships in maritime, air, and land security; and to promoting defence collaboration with India.

Advocates for targeted strategies to increase the representation of women in leadership, highlighting the systematic barriers and biases women face in entering senior finance roles.

Nitya Mohan Khemka, director of PATH and lecturer at the University of Cambridge, advocates for targeted strategies to increase the representation of women in leadership, highlighting the systematic barriers and biases women face in entering senior finance roles. She concludes: women leading development banks is not just about gender equality but also crucial for efficient and effective development financing. Camila dos Santos, International Relations Advisor at Rio de Janeiro City Hall, discusses the crucial role of addressing gender inequality at the G20 summit, paying particular focus to the disproportionate burden of unpaid domestic and caregiving work borne by women, especially those from marginalized groups. The imperative for comprehensive public policies in support of caregiving is foregrounded.

Admiral John Aquilino, the Commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, reflects on the significant impact of the Raisina Dialogue in shaping multilateral engagements, particularly in advancing the U.S.-India relationship. According to him, Raisina has played a crucial role in fostering collaboration, leading to milestones such as the Quad’s revival and defense agreements between the two nations. A Raisina regular, General Angus Campbell, Chief of the Defence Force of Australia, and Greg Moriarty, Secretary of the Department of Defence of Australia, emphasise the deepening defense and security partnership between India and Australia and highlight India’s pivotal role in Australia’s strategic vision for the Indo-Pacific. General Yamazaki Koji, former Chief of the Joint Staff of the Japan Self-Defense Force, praises the Raisina Dialogue for its role as an ‘ideas arena’ and emphasises the deepening Japan-India defense cooperation with the end of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.

In their piece, Rosa Balfour and Zakaria Al Shmaly, director of and research analyst at Carnegie Europe respectively, argue that the European Union’s foreign policy reflects double standards, that the Global South’s perception of the EU stands in contrast to the EU’s self-perception, and the EU needs to reform policies to improve its engagement with the Global South. Anirban Sarma, Deputy Director at the Observer Research Foundation, makes the case that India has, over its G20 Presidency, raised a significant level of awareness about digital public infrastructure (DPI) and its transformative potential for financial inclusion and tech-enabled development. He argues that India’s DPI model, the India Stack, has revolutionised public service elivery and serves as a framework whose appeal transcends the Global South.

Amrita Narlikar, President and Professor at German Institute for Global and Area Studies, argues for preserving globalisation by fundamentally rethinking its direction and scale, highlighting its benefits and inherent problems. She critiques the current model’s security, sustainability, and ownership deficits, and proposes “The Bharat Way” as a path towards a more secure, inclusive, and sustainable globalisation.

Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister of Sweden, addresses geopolitical tensions, emphasises the need for global trade agreements, and explores the impact of new technologies, climate change, and global health challenges. He highlights India’s influential role in global discourse, with the Raisina Dialogue serving as a vital platform for fostering diverse perspectives on pressing issues. Scott Morrison, former Prime Minister of Australia, refers to the enduring friendship between Australia and India. Reflecting on the Raisina Dialogue, he underscores the importance of appreciating India’s perspective and aligning Western strategic outlooks with India’s role as a leader in the Global South. Marcelo Ebrard, former Secretary of Foreign Affairs of Mexico, shares thoughts on the growing importance of the Asia-Pacific region, particularly India, with whom Mexico has strengthened diplomatic relations over 70 years. He praises the Raisina Dialogue for addressing global challenges and promoting dialogue, inclusion, and lasting solutions.

Mohammed Soliman, director of the Strategic Technologies and Cyber Security Program at the Middle East Institute, analyses the Middle East’s complex dynamics, juxtaposing the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict with the stability offered by the Abraham Accords and other minilateral formats.

David Petraeus, former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, looks at Raisina as a metaphor for India. He argues that the dialogue encapsulates India’s complex stance, embracing both Quad and BRICS affiliations, reflecting its unique role and evolving identity. As India grows in influence, the Raisina Dialogue becomes an increasingly important global gathering.

And finally, concluding the Raisina Chronicles, is former Prime Minister of Canada Stephen J. Harper, with an essay titled, “India Takes Its Rightful Place in an Evolving Global Order”. Mr. Harper highlights India’s significant global role, emphasising its influence on Indo-Pacific stability, SDG progress, global democracy, and climate change. He commends the Raisina Dialogue as a vital platform showcasing India’s confidence and significance in an evolving world order.

The Raisina Chronicles is not just a compilation of contributions from eminent leaders to mark a decade of dialoguing at Raisina Hill; it is also a report card of a decade of world affairs. The original Essays and selected Addresses delivered at the Dialogue in this publication collectively offer some crucial insights. First, that a dialogue out of India matters, because it brings a unique capability and commitment to the imperative of discussions and deliberations. Second, Raisina’s journey is a reflection of Bharat’s emergence. And as its engagement with the world evolves, we at the Dialogue will have to continue to innovate and upgrade. Finally, now that the Dialogue is a global good in the assessment of many, it will have to enter the second decade of its existence more aware of its wider responsibility.


Read the full volume here.

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Books / Papers, Raisina Dialogue, Research

Raisina Files 2022

In the sixth edition of our flagship annual journal of essays, the Raisina Files, we seek to take stock of where we are as people, communities, and countries. We intend to discuss and clarify responses to challenges that have arisen due to the pandemic, and discover and chart pathways to opportunities in the post-COVID19 world. Our contributors engage with the new war in Europe, and its consequences for the region and the world. Most importantly, the fine minds who have penned the essays that follow, seek to describe what lies ahead, how it will be arranged, who will shape it, and who will likely benefit from what unfolds.

Raisina Files 2022 mirrors the theme of this year’s Raisina Dialogue, “Terra Nova: Impassioned, Impatient, and Imperilled.” We have identified six pillars and areas of discussion within this overarching theme to engage with critically—Rethinking Democracy: Trade, Tech, and Ideology; End of Multilateralism: A Networked Global Order?; Water Caucuses: Turbulent Tides in the Indo-Pacific; Communities Inc.: First Responders to Health, Development, and Planet; Achieving Green Transitions: Common Imperative, Diverging Realities; and Samson vs Goliath: The Persistent and Relentless Tech Wars. Together, these six pillars of the Raisina Dialogue capture the multitude of conversations, opportunities, and anxieties countries engage and grapple with.

In this volume:

Editors: Samir Saran and Anahita Khanna 

  • The DragonBear: Putin’s Choices | Velina Tchakarova
  • Forging China-Resistant Supplier Compacts | Jeffrey Jeb Nadaner
  • Democracy, Technology, Geopolitics | Sameer Patil and Vivek Mishra
  • Materials That Matter | Andreas Kuehn
  • Scripting a Third Way: The Importance of EU-India Partnership | Amrita Narlikar
  • Emerging Domains of Conflict in the 21st Century| Lydia Kostopoulos
  • Advancing Trade Governance – Only for Democracies? | Renato G. Flôres Jr.
  • The World in Disarray: Is This the End of Multilateralism for Trade? | Stormy-Annika Mildner
  • Anticipate, Reform, and Elevate: Looking Toward W20 India 2023 | Erin Watson-Lynn
  • The Pandemic at 24 Months | Sridhar Venkatapuram
  • The Season of Caucuses: QUAD, AUKUS, and the Exclusive-Inclusive Duality of Indo-Pacific Asia | Rory Medcalf
  • Oceanic Choices: India, Japan, and the Dragon’s Fire: How does the QUAD Work? | Satoru Nagao
  • Diverging US and Indian Approaches to Europe: The Problem of Ukraine | S. Paul Kapur
  • India’s Unicorn Step-Function Growth Signals the Emergence of its Innovation Ecosystem | Nisha Holla
  • Exploring the Inequities of Climate Finance | Mannat Jaspal and Terri B. Chapman
  • Enabling the Green Transition to be a Just Transition | Nuvodita Singh and Akshima Ghate
  • Meta-Soft Power: Flipping the Scales Between Art & Culture | Nicolò Andreula and Stefania Petruzzelli
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China, Indo-pacific, Raisina Dialogue, Research

Walking the walk of values-based diplomacy

Co-Authored with Amrita Narlikar

The talk of values is not new to German foreign policy-makers. But the Russian invasion on Ukraine seems to have finally led Germany to walk the walk. The last week has been both frenzied and path-breaking in German politics.

On 22 February, Germany’s Chancellor, Olaf Scholz—a Social Democrat from Hamburg—called for a halt to Nord Stream 2, in response to Russian President, Vladimir Putin’s, provocations in Eastern Ukraine. This was dramatic at several levels: Germany’s energy dependence on Russia had tended to make some politicians—including Scholz’s predecessor, Angela Merkel (a Christian Democrat)—wary of pulling the plug on the pipeline project. Scholz deserves even more credit for having made this break with Germany’s Russia policy in the context of party politics: The Social Democrats had come under critique in the past for being too soft on Russia (Russlandversteher).

Germany’s difficult past had led it to ban the export of weapons to conflict-zones; in keeping with this practice, the country had blocked Estonia from sending arms to Ukraine last month.

Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine on 24 February, Olaf Scholz has taken three further remarkable steps. First, after some hesitation, he has agreed to the inclusion of a ban on SWIFT transactions with Russia. This is a strong and costly signal to send to Russia as it will also have financial implications for Germany. Second, Germany’s difficult past had led it to ban the export of weapons to conflict-zones; in keeping with this practice, the country had blocked Estonia from sending arms to Ukraine last month. Olaf Scholz engineered an unprecedented shift. In a stirring speech at a special session of the German Parliament on 27 February, Scholz stated that Germany, by supporting Ukraine, will stand on the side of Europe, democracy, and the “the right side of history”. Amongst the concrete measures he outlined, sending military supplies to Ukraine was key: “Russian invasion marks a turning point. It is our duty to support Ukraine to the best of our ability in defending against Putin’s invading army”. Germany will now be supplying anti-tank weapons and Stinger missiles to Ukraine. And third, just as significant is Germany’s announcement to increase its NATO defence spending, thereby signaling the emergence of Germany as a security actor.

In a country where deliberative democracy is exalted (sometimes to a point where it amounts to being a strategy to doing nothing or muddling through), and the burden of history is high, the swift turn towards taking greater responsibility through action cannot be underestimated. Scholz’s leadership has been critical to this development, though he is undoubtedly helped by his coalition partners in the Green Party, who have come to power on a platform of principles and values. Germany’s proactive role is invigorating for us to observe, and is perhaps also serving as a catalyst for the European Union: Witness the unprecedented decision by the EU to purchase weapons for Ukraine.

One could still take issue with the timing of all this: It would have indeed been better to signal such resolve to Putin before his attack on Ukraine, thereby, deterring war in the first place. But at a time when Germany seems to be finally walking the walk of values, it is time to not look behind, but fare forward.

Germany’s proactive role is invigorating for us to observe, and is perhaps also serving as a catalyst for the European Union: Witness the unprecedented decision by the EU to purchase weapons for Ukraine. 

It is clear that Scholz has understood the importance of hard power, in a way that his predecessors had not. As a dedicated European, he also knows that the Putin’s aggression towards Ukraine is a threat to European security as a whole. The question remains though, will he be able to extend his gaze to the global stage, and exercise much-needed leadership there? Putin is not the only authoritarian with grand designs in his neighbourhood; President Xi has been displaying similar adventurism towards Taiwan. The Ukraine crisis has brought these two players even closer, thus far. Will Scholz be the Chancellor to break out of the European platitudes of “partner, competitor, and rival” and finally call out China, just the way he has with Russia? As Mayor of Hamburg, Scholz was able to successfully attract Chinese investment to his city. As the Chancellor of Germany, he now has the onerous task of building a governance architecture that will secure the continent—and like-minded, democratic partners—from Chinese expansionism.

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Raisina Files 2021 aims to engage with the leitmotifs of this past pandemic year, mirroring the theme of the Raisina Dialogue 2021, “#ViralWorld: Outbreaks, Outliers and Out of Control”. Within this overarching theme, we have identified five pillars and areas of discussion to critically engage with—WHOse Multilateralism? Reconstructing the UN and Beyond; Securing and Diversifying Supply Chains; Global ‘Public Bads’: Holding Actors and Nations to Account; Infodemic: Navigating a ‘No-Truth’ World in the Age of Big Brother; and, finally, the Green Stimulus: Investing in Gender, Growth and Development. Together, these five pillars of the Raisina Dialogue capture the multitude of conversations and anxieties countries are engaging and grappling with.

Raisina Files is an annual ORF publication that brings together emerging and established voices in a collection of essays on key, contemporary questions that are implicating the world and India.

In this volume

Editors: Samir Saran, Preeti Lourdes John

  • Emerging Narratives and the Future of Multilateralism | Amrita Narlikar
  • Diplomacy in a Divided World | Melissa Conley Tyler
  • Is A Cold War 2.0 Inevitable? | Velina Tchakarova
  • Trust But Verify: A Narrative Analysis Of “Trusted” Tech Supply Chains | Trisha Ray
  • Can The World Collaborate Amid Vaccine Nationalism | Shamika Ravi
  • A Nuclear Insecurity: How Can We Tame The Proliferators | Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan
  • De Facto Shared Sovereignty And The Rise Of Non-State Statecraft: Imperatives For Nation-States | Lydia Kostopoulus
  • Digital Biases: The Chimera Of Equality And Access | Nanjira Sambuli
  • The Infodemic: Regulating The New Public Square | Kara Frederick
  • How Finance Can Deliver Real Environmental And Climate Impact | Geraldine Ang
  • Unlocking Capital For Climate Response In The Emerging World | Kanika Chawla
  • Putting Women Front And Centre Of India’s Green Recovery Process | Shloka Nath, Isha Chawla, Shailja Mehta
  • Investing In Material Innovation Is Investing In India’s Future | Nisha Holla

Read here – https://www.orfonline.org/research/raisina-files-2021/

Books, Raisina Dialogue, Writing

Raisina Files 2021

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OECD, Politics / Globalisation, Raisina Dialogue

India: Inclusive Growth and the Employment Challenge

India’s strong growth in recent years has outstripped job creation and poverty remains a key challenge. But in the face of the changing world of work Terri Chapman and Samir Saran, Social Policy Specialist and Associate Fellow and Vice President at India’s Observer Research Foundation, explain how perceived problems in the economy can become opportunities.

Terri Chapman, Samir Saran, Feb 09, 2018, The Forum Network

Original link is here

India’s sustained average growth rate of 7% over the last decade has not been accompanied by sufficient growth in employment. While half of India’s population is below the age of 26, the increasing demand for jobs is not being met by the creation of sufficient new economic opportunities. The annual demand for new jobs in India is estimated at 12-15 million, leaving India with a shortage of between 4-7 million jobs each year. This is further compounded by the 300 million people of working-age outside of the labour force. India’s official unemployment rate of 3.5% masks the magnitude of the jobs crunch.

The extent and severity of poverty in India provides further impetus for addressing the jobs challenge. One in five people live on less than USD 1.90 per day, and more than half of the population lives on less than USD 3 a day (2011 PPP). High rates of employment in low-skilled, low-wage and low-productivity occupations only exacerbate this condition. India has a working poverty rate of 20%. Increasing both individual and household incomes will need to be at the centre of policies designed to address the employment challenge.

Two characteristics of the Indian economy that have historically constrained growth may actually provide new opportunities in the context of a changing economy. The first is a disproportionate share of microenterprises, with 98% of companies employing fewer than 10 workers; the second is the high rate of informality, with 90% of employment generated in the informal sector. In an increasingly digital- and service-based economy these characteristics could, in fact, create efficiencies. Three strategies should be undertaken to leverage these opportunities: upgrading skills and capabilities; supporting microenterprise and self-employment; and creating new models for social protection.

The service sector is providing immense opportunities for job creation in both traditional and emerging sub-sectors. Currently, this sector accounts for 60% of GDP and 30% of employment. Continued growth in domestic and export services is expected it and will be increasingly important in the face of uncertainty in the manufacturing sector, where employment has stagnated at 22%. Changes in manufacturing processes, especially the potential for increased automation, will limit the benefits of labour-intensive growth. Structural shifts in the economy due to digitalisation are altering the kinds of jobs being created and the skills required for individuals to remain competitive. In order to help workers adapt to changing demand, India must develop an enhanced skills development framework. Such a framework should be accessible, driven by demand, linked to employment opportunities and enable individuals to quickly up-skill and re-skill.

The adoption of digital technologies and emergence of digital platforms, such as in e-commerce and digital financial systems, are improving the business viability of microenterprises in India. Additionally, India’s microfirms create direct employment and should be an essential part of its employment strategy. In order to support inclusive growth among micro and small-sized firms, India must improve financial connectivity and reorient its skills development strategy. Further, in order to take full advantage of the employment potential of the digital economy, it is essential to improve and secure digital infrastructure to enable equal access to digital technologies and reduce the digital divide.

As the digital economy begins to generate new opportunities in India, it will be characterised by increased contract work and self-employment. This should be met with new models of social protection and strategies that mitigate risks of shifting labour relations. Social safety nets and social benefits that are typically linked to employment should be accessible to individuals directly. Potential issues such as depressed wages, low productivity, and economic insecurity need to be managed through new policy frameworks.

© Press Trust of India

A changing global economic environment, structural changes to the Indian economy and digital transformations have the potential to greatly exacerbate the employment challenge. At the same time, a major opportunity for India stems from its existing economic structure that is dominated by the informal sector. New digital technologies will allow India to catalyse growth. Given global trends towards informalisation and self-employment, India is at a strategic advantage to avoid substantial structural adjustments.

India has the opportunity to drive growth from the informal sector, while simultaneously creating stronger linkages between the state and individuals through new, digitally-enabled social protection mechanisms. This opportunity will be accompanied by a major challenge: to effectively skill, up-skill and re-skill India’s workforce. The immensity of this undertaking is compounded by the lack of a quality formal education among large parts of the population. It is imperative that India leverages digital technologies to bring workers into the labour force, connects individuals to social protection systems and finds ways to effectively prepare people for a changing employment landscape.

Go to the profile of Terri Chapman, Samir Saran

Terri Chapman, Samir Saran

Social Policy Specialist and Associate Fellow, Vice President , Observer Research Foundation

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Raisina Files 2018 unpacks disruption and its interaction with global politics. Disruptive forces have been grouped along the lines of actors, processes, and theatres: three major nation-states whose external engagements are seeing shifts; three processes that are re-organising political, economic, and social spaces; and two old and new arenas where geopolitics are having local, regional, and global repercussions.

Raisina Files, an annual ORF publication, is a collection of essays published and disseminated at the time of the Raisina Dialogue. It strives to engage and provoke readers on key contemporary questions and situations that will implicate the world and India in the coming years. Arguments and analyses presented in this collection will be useful in taking discussions forward and enunciating policy suggestions for an evolving Asian and world order.

  • Debating Disruption: Change and Continuity | Ritika Passi and Harsh V. Pant, ORF

ACTORS

  • Is the US a disruptor of world order? | Robert J. Lieber, Georgetown University
  • Russia as a disruptor of the Post-Cold War order: To what effect? | Dmitri Trenin, Carnegie Moscow
  • China as a disruptor of the international order: A Chinese View | Yun Sun, Stimson Center

PROCESSES

  • Globalisation, demography, technology, and new political anxieties | Samir Saran and Akhil Deo, ORF
  • Minority Report, Illiberalism, intolerance, and the threat to international society | Manu Bhagavan, Hunter College
  • Fourth Industrial Revolution: Evolving Impact | Pranjal Sharma, author, Kranti Nation

THEATRES

  • Revolutionary Road: Indo-Pacific in Transition | Abhijnan Rej, ORF
  • Middle East: Cascading Conflict | Tally Helfont, Foreign Policy Research Institute
  • Climate Change, Transitions, and Geopolitics | Karina Barquet, Stockholm Environment Institute

Read here – orfonline.org/research/debating-disruption-world-order/

Books, Raisina Dialogue, Research, Writing

Debating Disruption in the World Order

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