G 20, G20, Writing

Thinking Progress: Making ‘G20’ Fit for 2020s

With India’s presidency of the G20 commencing, it would be an understatement to suggest India would be at the helm of the most powerful plurilateral group at a very crucial moment in world history. Certitudes and certainties are words from the past. Ideology, geography, and demography are implicating and being acted upon by technological innovation, climate action, and economic volatility. Weaponisation of everything is the norm, as discord has replaced dialogue. This is the landscape confronting India’s Presidency, and this is where India may be the lighthouse in the tempest.

India is a civilisation that celebrates heterogeneity, shaped by multiple histories and incubated over millennia by a rich kaleidoscope of cultures. Over the past 75 years, it has demonstrated a remarkable ability to accommodate and even thrive amidst differences. The adage, “unity in diversity”, is a truism for India, irrespective of the noise on social media platforms. This is an exemplar of what the world needs most today. If multilateralism is to work, G20 countries must work harder to make that happen, and strengthen dialogue within and with others. The ‘India Way’ will assist in this. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi reminded us in his monthly radio broadcast for November, “India must utilise the opportunity of G20 leadership by focusing on global good and welfare.”

India is a civilisation that celebrates heterogeneity, shaped by multiple histories and incubated over millennia by a rich kaleidoscope of cultures.

The Think20 and its Task Forces for G20 Engagement

The Think20 is a group of think tanks and scholars that form the “Ideas Hub” of the G20. This is an official engagement group, which supports the Sherpa Track and provides inputs to the G20 Leaders for their consideration. At a moment of global economic churn, it is an imperative to define a common G20 assessment and response framework to assist communities and countries in distress. Appropriately, a specially constituted Think20 task force will examine the relationship between trade and investment policy and global supply chains, and how national macroeconomic policies impact them. The task force will focus on the need for better monetary policy synchronisation with fiscal policies within and among nations. It will offer ideas on how to protect supply chains and trade from the negative impact of unilateral decisions that some countries have undertaken. As such, it will offer ideas and proposals to safeguard and catalyse jobs and livelihoods.

These discussions are happening against the backdrop of hyper digitalisation and the fourth industrial revolution. A Think20 task force will focus exclusively on Digital Public Infrastructure and its importance. It will examine accountable, affordable, and equitable digital evolution across sectors and find ways to make digital supply chains more resilient and decentralised. The purpose of this group of experts from various G20 countries is to discuss means to promote inclusive entrepreneurship, jobs, and livelihoods; social protection; and financial inclusion in the digital domain.

The task force will focus on the need for better monetary policy synchronisation with fiscal policies within and among nations.

Any such endeavour must consider planetary considerations and be part of the larger green transition. This will entail making transition financing more urgent and inclusive, and catalysing proliferation of key technologies and new energy solutions. A related task force will assess and discuss the role and reform of Multilateral Development Banks, the shape of innovative financial instruments and tools, and means to unlock the full potential of global private capital in emerging and developing countries. It will highlight an actionable outcome for the G20 to assist in these endeavours.

Macro-economic policies, trade and investment, and, indeed, green transitions and digitalisation must all have one core objective – the service of all humans and lifeforms, and of Planet Earth. Agenda 2030, and the quest to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), must now form part of the G20 as the presidency passes from Indonesia to India, and then to Brazil and South Africa. The G-20 has done reasonably well to protect banks and financial institutions; its challenge now is to serve “people and planet”.

A Think20 task force will focus on just this aspect. SDGs took a beating courtesy the pandemic and conflicts in various geographies. Changing climate and erratic weather patterns have added an additional burden. We are all acutely aware of the importance of societal resilience; and science, innovation, and technology facilitation for SDGs remain necessary means of implementation. These will form the crux of the G20 and T20 work during the year, in addition to emphasis on water security, promoting holistic outcomes in health and nutrition, gender-led development models and growth outcomes, and protecting biodiversity.

The task forces themselves will have more than 100 experts across themes and sectors, and will also see a vibrant pan-Indian participation from nearly 40 institutions across the country.

All of these will be attended to by a talent pool that ensures larger participation from G20 countries that were under-represented in past discussions. Voices from emerging geographies will take centre-stage. The task forces themselves will have more than 100 experts across themes and sectors, and will also see a vibrant pan-Indian participation from nearly 40 institutions across the country. A Global Advisory Committee will be established. It will include Think20 Chairs of past presidencies and distinguished think tank experts from upcoming presidencies. This group of elders will share its experiences and ambitions with the India-led process. In the end, the intellectual aggregation during India’s presidency will be qualitatively and quantitatively different from any previous year. With luck and effort, India would have changed the G20 lexicon and made it ready for the 2020s.

*Dr Samir Saran, President, Observer Research Foundation and Chair of Think-20 Secretariat

G 20, G20, Research, Writing

What will India’s G20 presidency focus on?

India’s presidency must leave the grouping with the agility and energy to respond to new realities, and it must create a future-ready multilateralism through a novel and robust institutional architecture

India takes over the presidency of the group in December. To live up to the potential of this opportunity, it must choose a policy direction to focus on continuity, incorporate green and digital transitions, and recognise the realities of a post-pandemic world

India’s presidency of the G20 grouping next year — arguably the sole remaining effective forum for global governance — presents an enormous opportunity to accelerate sustainable growth within India, in the emerging world, and beyond.

For India’s presidency to live up to this potential, it must recognise the constraints of the grouping and the crises — from the pandemic to the Ukraine war — that it must confront. But there should also be a clear understanding of the levers that a G20 president has to affect global policy action.

Next year, the troika of the preceding, current, and succeeding presidents will be three developing countries: Indonesia, India, and Brazil. This fortuitous alignment must inform India’s strategy as it designs its G20 agenda.

Three broad principles should underline India’s planning. First, it must recognise the value of the emerging-world troika and choose policy directions that emphasise continuity. Second, it must incorporate the concerns of its dual development transitions — green and digital — into the G20’s agenda. And third, it must recognise the realities of the post-pandemic world and prioritise action on those sectors that have, since 2020, been revealed to be under-capitalised.

India’s agenda must resonate beyond the one year it holds the presidency. This requires it to set its priorities alongside those of the two other members of the troika. The G20 under Indonesia has articulated three priority issues — global health architecture, digital transformation, and sustainable energy transition. Reinterpreting these will be key to building continuity, and, thus, sustained action. It is also important to keep in mind that having too many priorities is the same as having none at all. Indeed, India must prevent the G20 from suffering — as other multilateral forums such as the World Trade Organization do — from an over-expansion of its mandate.

Two major transformations will define our economies and societies going forward: Digital transition and green transition. Both are key to addressing the development challenge as well. These transitions are the meeting point of geopolitical and youth aspirations that will dictate our political, economic and social well-being.

On the digital front, India, to a large extent, has been a first mover. India’s youth aspirations are digital-first; the government has responded, and the digital economy is at the centre of its aim for a $5-trillion economy by the second half of the 2020s. The Observer Research Foundation’s youth survey on tech policy found that 83% of respondents want India to adopt a policy that prioritises its domestic technology industry. At the same time, 80% welcome greater cooperation with international partners on technology.

Clearly, a fine balance is needed where technological multilateralism does not come at the cost of developing countries’ needs. The Think Tank 20 (T20) engagement process has identified the internet as a basic right and technology access as vital to reducing inequalities. Cooperation at the G20 would be a good testing ground for pioneering tech regulation that balances the interests of the private sector with sovereignty and the security needs of States, and the growth demands of the economy.

India’s G20 must also recognise the unprecedented, carbon-constrained nature of future growth. Arguments for a green transition can no longer be limited to the moral high ground of saving the planet. A commitment on sustainable consumption must be placed front and centre. International financial regulation and the mandates of multilateral development banks must also ensure that adequate finance incentivises a business case for rapid change with adequate global flows subpoenaed for the developing world. Can the Indian presidency help to architect this new global arrangement?

A third focus must necessarily be the post-pandemic world order. Covid-19 has proved that health, nutrition, and livelihoods all remain fragile despite commitments made under Agenda 2030. The United Nations has warned that the Covid crisis could result in a lost decade for development. It has sharpened inequalities and widened development gaps. The United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund has also cautioned that the pandemic could lead to a “lost generation” of children in terms of education, nutrition, and overall well-being. These conversations have become more complex due to the crisis in Ukraine. The weaponisation of trade and the international banking system during this war has exacerbated uncertainties. The surge in prices of energy and essential staple foods has added a disturbing dimension to an already stressed economic recovery. By putting nutrition, food security, and health at the heart of its G20 agenda, India can ensure the success of the Decade of Action on Sustainable Development. The clincher will be to facilitate greater funding towards these efforts.

India’s presidency is an opportunity to reinvigorate, reinvent and re-centre the multilateral order. The G20 cannot be distracted or undermined by the bilateral relations of specific members, even as we acknowledge the gravity of the humanitarian crisis that is unfolding in Europe. India must leave the G20 with the agility and energy to respond to new realities, and it must create a future-ready multilateralism through a novel and robust institutional architecture.