India, international affairs, Politics / Globalisation, Raisina Dialogue, Writing

Raisina Chronicles: India’s Global Public Square

S.Jaishankar | Samir Saran

The Raisina Dialogue has become a feature today in the calendars of leaders around the world. It is a must-attend for all who seek to move the needle, disrupt the status quo, defend their beliefs, and create what shall be. India’s flagship conference on geopolitics and geo-economics enters its 10th year. In that time, it has emerged as a global, inclusive, and wide-band forum of international importance, transcending borders and ideologies, ages and agendas, hashtags and echo chambers. It is India’s ‘global public square’—located in New Delhi, incubated by the world. Its purpose is to preserve and promote the often-challenged art of dialogue and of working through differences. In keeping with Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi’s vision of delivering public goods for the benefit of all humanity, it is indeed a platform that serves this planet.

Raisina has been crucial in propelling discourse, nurturing collaboration, and fostering a sense of shared responsibility. It is a venue for celebrating diversity in all its shapes and forms: of thought, of approaches, of beliefs, of politics. It has captured the age-old Indian premise that within us all lies a desire and power to do good. Each view must be heard, and each suggestion must be considered. Pluralism, confabulation and heterogeneity is what makes us resilient and anti-fragile; and what drives the evolution of individuals and of societies. This is India’s own story as well; an enormous diversity that rests on a powerful timeless unity. or this reason, Raisina provides a rare opportunity for leaders and diplomats, scholars and policymakers, journalists and academics, teenagers and seasoned thinkers, business folks and civil society—to all come together to debate, deliberate, disagree, and discover shared futures and common pathways.

Pluralism, confabulation and heterogeneity is what makes us resilient and anti-fragile; and what drives the evolution of individuals and of societies.

On this occasion, we celebrate the Raisina Decade: a period during which the Dialogue has helped build regional partnerships and transcontinental collaborations, while responding to global challenges. For three days every year, it has brought a fractured and polarised world together. This volume chronicles this journey, and reflects on its unique strengths and attributes. And this is best done by bringing together how it is perceived by eminent participants from different parts of the world. These are the thoughts of those who have themselves experienced Raisina and have contributed ideas, who have listened and spoken there and who appreciate the difference it has made.

The Making of Raisina

The imperative of dialogue in polarised times is self-evident. And it has gained salience precisely because the promise of globalisation has been visibly broken. Most have lost faith in the once-inviting prospect of a world where different customs and cultures are welcomed, where different perspectives are appreciated, and where different interests are accepted. This came about because a few were able to ultimately control the process of globalisation at the expense of the many. Global realities were recast in the image of these narrow circles, to suit their interests and needs. What was meant to usher in a brave new world—more diverse and inclusive than the one before—became instead an instrument for manufacturing consent. This has prompted multiple pushbacks. Some intellectual and others political. Its cumulative result is apparent to all today when we see how the global landscape has fragmented.

The flipside of the predicament is the extraordinary concentrations of manufacturing technology and capabilities that emerged to partner these interests. With the passage of time, every aspect of this new dominance is being leveraged. So, it should not come as a surprise that global conversations have also felt its impact. Hierarchies and architectures that had receded with history have resurfaced. And along with them, a different form of discourse and messaging.

The guardians of the international order and the established multilateral frameworks repeat outdated mantras that lack credibility.

The influence on mindsets has also been profound. Anxieties about quality of life and reliability of supply chains have made many societies looking inward. Domestic priorities understandably prevail over international cooperation; individual interests supersede collective endeavours. Meanwhile, the guardians of the international order and the established multilateral frameworks repeat outdated mantras that lack credibility. The truth is that the self-appointed custodians of the world of today are divorced from its continuance. These original architects have also lost the wherewithal to convene all stakeholders and shapers. It was therefore important for new protagonists to step in, contribute and gather. This is why India, under the leadership of its Prime Minister, felt it necessary to invest in a global arena for ideation and deliberation. At the Raisina Dialogue, panels are hosted by leaders in politics, business, media, and civil society. Heads of state and foreign ministers sit next to aspiring engineers and business studies graduates. It is a space where the East and the West, the North and the South, and countless regional competitors can—and do—share a stage. Patience is prioritised over polemic, understanding over assertion, and balance over subjectivity. It is a truly global public square with an Indian postal code.

Offering an India Way

This year, while the world gathers in India for the Raisina Dialogue 2024, the relevance of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam (the world is one family) is increasingly evident. In today’s fractured world, this mantra is a sorely-needed acknowledgement of the inherent unity of humankind and the impact we have on each other. In this context, the India Story resonates in many corners of the globe because of the similarity of problems and the viability of solutions. The deep and persistent development challenges India is addressing offer a template of action for others to adopt and adapt. It is incumbent on India to be generous with sharing its journey, its experiences and learning, its struggles and solutions.

Through its G20 Presidency, India shared with the world a credible synthesis of nationalism and internationalism. This was based on the conviction that a major nation which effectively addresses the needs of its people can only serve humankind better. Certainly, that has been the case with India, whether we think of it as a First Responder, a Pharmacy of the World, an example of Digital Delivery, a source of trusted talent as well as an innovator, manufacturer and a supply chain link. In each case, progress at home was reflected in greater contributions abroad. By ascending the global economic hierarchy with a view to emerge as third by 2028, India is not only transforming the most populous society but also becoming an additional engine of global growth. This is much needed in an era of fairer re-globalisation that is more focused on strategic autonomy. And the challenge of harmonising the local with the global is one that is addressed by drawing on India’s own heritage and outlook.

Every success and failure, every experience and innovation—have relevance for someone somewhere in the world. Raisina is a platform for such discourse, mirroring the innate pluralism of India.

The Raisina Dialogue reflects the conviction that our journeys must be open to all. It advocates an open architecture for governance, for policy, for story-telling. Every success and failure, every experience and innovation—have relevance for someone somewhere in the world. Raisina is a platform for such discourse, mirroring the innate pluralism of India. Consequently, its annual gathering is a meeting ground for a great variety of people, perspectives, and topics.

Why Bharat Matters

The change that we have witnessed in the last decade has not just been a quantitative expansion. This transformation has been one equally of thought processes, self-confidence and self-reliance. It draws on generations of heritage and culture, thereby creating greater self awareness about our identity. There is a greater seriousness too in realising visions and achieving goals. Not least, a clear sense of what we were and are is essential to decide where we want to go. Mediating effectively between tradition and technology has always been key to the quest for modernity. Today, the ability to delineate our own path and expanding our decisional space are characteristics of our progress. The combination of all of these has helped to make India much more Bharat.

Confronted with an uncertain world, this means drawing on our own experiences and arriving at our judgements in the search for solutions. Conflicting pulls and pressures will press us to take positions that may not always be in our best interest. They could be presented as global norms or natural choices. It is here that independent thinking arrived at through detailed discourse can make a difference. When it came to the Indo-Pacific, we embraced a strategic concept that is clearly to our benefit. And joined a mechanism that promoted both global good and national interest. That such steps were a departure from the past was not a discouragement. Similarly, when it came to the Ukraine conflict, we articulated the concerns of a large part of the world on its economic consequences. By contesting a narrative that served a particular region, we were also able to soften the impact on our own people. Bharat means having the courage to be contrary when needed, contributive when required, and confident at all times.

Confronted with an uncertain world, this means drawing on our own experiences and arriving at our judgements in the search for solutions.

Raisina is the venue where such conversations happen. It is the living, dynamic bridge where the world comes to understand us, and where we communicate with the world. Raisina is the vehicle for this dialogue, where the world absorbs Bharat and Bharat in turn shapes the world.

The Raisina Dialectic

The Raisina Dialogue stands out currently as a broad-based forum that engages freely in debate, discussion, and disputation. The coming together of diverse perspectives in a productive collision often results in new insights and solutions. There are particular reasons for the energy and effervescence that characterises its activities. They emanate from its interdisciplinary nature, inclusive participation, equitable agenda and democratic ethos.

Raisina is designed to reap the dividends that flow from the interactions of different disciplines and methods of thinking. Such cross-sectoral discourse is of utmost importance for breaking down silos and enhancing understanding. Diplomats must speak to scholars and academics, while international relations thinkers should engage business leaders. It is common to see leaders in politics, business, media, and civil society share a stage for discussion. Rigid policy conversations are shaken up with the introduction of freer scholarly interventions. This holistic approach makes discussions more complete, more comprehensive, and ultimately more effective.

Inclusiveness is at the heart of the Raisina spirit. The Dialogue welcomes views from across the globe that have not found space in traditional and established arenas. It allows conversations of a different kind because the voices themselves are different: These are younger; they are more diverse; they are from geographies that are often ignored or from institutions which cannot break into the international pecking order. They are more representative of the way the world actually looks. As a result, Raisina becomes a place for discovering new talent, new ideas, new perspectives, new people. It acts a springboard, a gateway, an all-access pass for these new protagonists and narratives to be allowed entry into the traditional forums.

Diplomats must speak to scholars and academics, while international relations thinkers should engage business leaders.

Concerns of equity and fairness pervade the choice of topics for the panel discussions. Most international forums concern themselves with the first billion people of the world. Raisina is that exception where discussions focus on the interests of the next seven billion. Matters of food security are given as much prominence as the battles between tech platforms. Questions of regional development, energy access, public goods, and employment are as important as concerns of war and peace, anti-trust regulation, and the quest for the ideal liberal society. Past empires are now talking back and demanding their place at the table. The Global South has been noticeable in that regard, be it in its self-perception or its self-confidence. Raisina reflects this reality because it has consciously moved beyond privilege. It is not merely an active gathering but also a very contemporary one.

As a Dialogue that is greater than the sum of its parts, its conversations take place, not merely during the three days of the conference but also in the periods before and after. It is a zone where ideas are incubated; where solutions are assessed and reassessed; where visions clash, compete, contest, cooperate. New sentiments are articulated, and outdated perspectives discarded. Discussion is frank and usually honest; they could be provocative but are always constructive. Through its reputation and impact, this approach is now becoming the new normal.

A Decade of Dialogue

As the Raisina Dialogue enters its tenth year, it is fair to say that we have come a great distance. What started as a hundred people in a room has become India’s premier conference and a forum of international note. This dialogue has captured global imagination precisely because it happens to be in a New India.

The success of Raisina has also been driven by the support, leadership, and commitment of the Indian Government. The Prime Minister himself has made it a point to be present at each inaugural session of the Dialogue since its second edition in 2017 and has delivered an address once in-person and once virtually. By attending the Dialogue but foregoing the microphone, the Prime Minister has reminded the world that many times, to listen is more important than to speak. He has elevated the act of being in a Raisina audience as learning from other experiences, grappling with other perspectives, absorbing the vantage points that others have brought. He has personally demolished the hierarchy between the speaking class on the one hand and the audience members on the other. Raisina is as much about being a listener as it is about being a speaker. It is a reminder that every idea demands careful consideration, that debate is the food for life itself. Where difference is never shunned because it is the basis of working harder to come together.

The Prime Minister himself has made it a point to be present at each inaugural session of the Dialogue since its second edition in 2017 and has delivered an address once in-person and once virtually.

To commemorate a decade of dialogue, this volume brings together essays written by eminent voices from across the world as well as speeches delivered at Raisina by world leaders and heads of states.

Raisina Chronicles opens with a Foreword by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Prime Minister of Greece. Greece and India, both ancient cradles of democracy, are discovering each other again in the 21st century. Mr. Mitsotakis advocates for open discussion as a means to bridge global divisions, proposing the integration of the Indo-Pacific and the Mediterranean as a path towards greater global unity and cooperation.

In her essay, Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Denmark, discusses the interconnected crises facing the planet, encompassing climate, environment, health, and military conflicts. In such a world, the India-Denmark Green Strategic Partnership exemplifies successful collaboration, addressing climate goals and creating a model for global impact. She stresses the importance of global cooperation and of reinvigorating our commitment to tackle shared challenges. In the next piece, Tanja Fajon, Deputy Prime Minister of Slovenia, reflects on the 2023 Raisina Dialogue, praising its diverse discussions on global challenges. She discusses the urgent need for international cooperation, advocating effective multilateralism and UN reform. Lauding the inclusion of youth and women in Raisina discussions, she expresses optimism about India-Slovenia cooperation.

Penny Wong, the Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs, stresses the importance of forums like Raisina for strategic thinking amidst escalating security challenges. She underscores Australia’s partnership with India, citing shared history and the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, praising collaborative efforts in economic, climate, and educational initiatives.

In his essay, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Minister of Foreign Affairs in Saudi Arabia, writes about the deep-rooted cultural ties between India and the Arab world, which have now evolved into a robust strategic partnership. Trade relations have flourished, with India being the Kingdom’s second-largest trading partner. He is confident that the Saudi-Indian partnership promises a prosperous future for both nations. Kwame Owino, CEO of the Institute of Economic Affairs, and Jackline Kagume, Constitution, Law and Economy Programme head at IEA, emphasize the African Union’s (AU) admission to the G20 as a significant step for global economic governance. They highlight the AU’s potential for pushing for global institution reforms in an effort to counteract the trend of de-globalization.

Chairman of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, Tadashi Maeda touches upon India’s economic growth, its partnership with Japan, and the significance of the Indo-Pacific region. He stresses enhanced India-Japan cooperation amidst global challenges. Admiral Sir Antony Radakin, the Chief of the Defence Staff of the United Kingdom (U.K.), explores the changing dynamics between the U.K. and India in the 2020s and highlights the U.K.’s interest in the Indo-Pacific; to expanding partnerships in maritime, air, and land security; and to promoting defence collaboration with India.

Advocates for targeted strategies to increase the representation of women in leadership, highlighting the systematic barriers and biases women face in entering senior finance roles.

Nitya Mohan Khemka, director of PATH and lecturer at the University of Cambridge, advocates for targeted strategies to increase the representation of women in leadership, highlighting the systematic barriers and biases women face in entering senior finance roles. She concludes: women leading development banks is not just about gender equality but also crucial for efficient and effective development financing. Camila dos Santos, International Relations Advisor at Rio de Janeiro City Hall, discusses the crucial role of addressing gender inequality at the G20 summit, paying particular focus to the disproportionate burden of unpaid domestic and caregiving work borne by women, especially those from marginalized groups. The imperative for comprehensive public policies in support of caregiving is foregrounded.

Admiral John Aquilino, the Commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, reflects on the significant impact of the Raisina Dialogue in shaping multilateral engagements, particularly in advancing the U.S.-India relationship. According to him, Raisina has played a crucial role in fostering collaboration, leading to milestones such as the Quad’s revival and defense agreements between the two nations. A Raisina regular, General Angus Campbell, Chief of the Defence Force of Australia, and Greg Moriarty, Secretary of the Department of Defence of Australia, emphasise the deepening defense and security partnership between India and Australia and highlight India’s pivotal role in Australia’s strategic vision for the Indo-Pacific. General Yamazaki Koji, former Chief of the Joint Staff of the Japan Self-Defense Force, praises the Raisina Dialogue for its role as an ‘ideas arena’ and emphasises the deepening Japan-India defense cooperation with the end of a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.

In their piece, Rosa Balfour and Zakaria Al Shmaly, director of and research analyst at Carnegie Europe respectively, argue that the European Union’s foreign policy reflects double standards, that the Global South’s perception of the EU stands in contrast to the EU’s self-perception, and the EU needs to reform policies to improve its engagement with the Global South. Anirban Sarma, Deputy Director at the Observer Research Foundation, makes the case that India has, over its G20 Presidency, raised a significant level of awareness about digital public infrastructure (DPI) and its transformative potential for financial inclusion and tech-enabled development. He argues that India’s DPI model, the India Stack, has revolutionised public service elivery and serves as a framework whose appeal transcends the Global South.

Amrita Narlikar, President and Professor at German Institute for Global and Area Studies, argues for preserving globalisation by fundamentally rethinking its direction and scale, highlighting its benefits and inherent problems. She critiques the current model’s security, sustainability, and ownership deficits, and proposes “The Bharat Way” as a path towards a more secure, inclusive, and sustainable globalisation.

Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister of Sweden, addresses geopolitical tensions, emphasises the need for global trade agreements, and explores the impact of new technologies, climate change, and global health challenges. He highlights India’s influential role in global discourse, with the Raisina Dialogue serving as a vital platform for fostering diverse perspectives on pressing issues. Scott Morrison, former Prime Minister of Australia, refers to the enduring friendship between Australia and India. Reflecting on the Raisina Dialogue, he underscores the importance of appreciating India’s perspective and aligning Western strategic outlooks with India’s role as a leader in the Global South. Marcelo Ebrard, former Secretary of Foreign Affairs of Mexico, shares thoughts on the growing importance of the Asia-Pacific region, particularly India, with whom Mexico has strengthened diplomatic relations over 70 years. He praises the Raisina Dialogue for addressing global challenges and promoting dialogue, inclusion, and lasting solutions.

Mohammed Soliman, director of the Strategic Technologies and Cyber Security Program at the Middle East Institute, analyses the Middle East’s complex dynamics, juxtaposing the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict with the stability offered by the Abraham Accords and other minilateral formats.

David Petraeus, former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, looks at Raisina as a metaphor for India. He argues that the dialogue encapsulates India’s complex stance, embracing both Quad and BRICS affiliations, reflecting its unique role and evolving identity. As India grows in influence, the Raisina Dialogue becomes an increasingly important global gathering.

And finally, concluding the Raisina Chronicles, is former Prime Minister of Canada Stephen J. Harper, with an essay titled, “India Takes Its Rightful Place in an Evolving Global Order”. Mr. Harper highlights India’s significant global role, emphasising its influence on Indo-Pacific stability, SDG progress, global democracy, and climate change. He commends the Raisina Dialogue as a vital platform showcasing India’s confidence and significance in an evolving world order.

The Raisina Chronicles is not just a compilation of contributions from eminent leaders to mark a decade of dialoguing at Raisina Hill; it is also a report card of a decade of world affairs. The original Essays and selected Addresses delivered at the Dialogue in this publication collectively offer some crucial insights. First, that a dialogue out of India matters, because it brings a unique capability and commitment to the imperative of discussions and deliberations. Second, Raisina’s journey is a reflection of Bharat’s emergence. And as its engagement with the world evolves, we at the Dialogue will have to continue to innovate and upgrade. Finally, now that the Dialogue is a global good in the assessment of many, it will have to enter the second decade of its existence more aware of its wider responsibility.

Read the full volume here.

Global South, Great Power Dynamics, India, international affairs, US and canada, Writing

The US needs a new paradigm for India: ‘Great Power Partnership’

Samir Saran | Kaush Arha

The US-India partnership is unprecedented in its scope. It holds the promise to substantially augment both nations’ security interests and to shape the world to their mutual advantage. The coordination and collaboration between the world’s longest standing democracy and its largest democracy will have far-reaching regional and global implications. This strategic alignment requires sustained forethought and concerted action—as well as a new realist paradigm and lexicon. Prioritizing pragmatic and principled interests and values will lead to the formulation of a novel US-India strategic framework and vocabulary unshackled by past preconceptions.

The era of great power competition calls for Great Power Partnerships. Size matters. As the United States engages in competitive or adversarial relationships with Asian and Eurasian powers China and Russia, it is prudent for it to seek a Great Power Partnership. Conversely, India is engaged in localized hostilities with its neighbors China and Pakistan, and finds its one-time friend Russia reduced to being a dependent of China. Realpolitik calls for the largest American and Asian nations, as democracies, to forge a Great Power Partnership to their mutual advantage.

But the US-India partnership represents a strategic convergence between emerging allies driven by shared interests and values. Both countries realize that they are stronger together in deterring Beijing’s hegemonic designs, which are inimical to both US and Indian interests. India shares the longest disputed land border with China and confronts the hostile China-Pakistan axis along virtually its entire western, northern, and eastern land borders. Meanwhile, China’s major foreign policy goal is to displace the United States as the paramount power in the Indo-Pacific and upend the US-led rules-based international order.

The US-India convergence extends beyond deterring the Chinese Communist Party. It smooths India’s path to achieving its “rightful place” among the world’s leading nations. In turn, the United States has, in India, a partner of size to shape world affairs to their collective advantage. Traditional security assurances and treaty provisions underlie the United States’ closest alliances, including those with NATO nations, Israel, and Japan. India has strenuously shunned alliances over the last seven decades. But realism will compel the two nations to increasingly act in concordance, whether they choose to institutionalize their converging interests into a formal treaty or alliance with reciprocal commitments or not.

The two countries have rightly termed this “the most consequential relationship of the twenty-first century.” US and Indian leaders have also referred to it as a “comprehensive strategic partnership”—the same label the United States uses for Vietnam and Indonesia. India deserves a category of its own: Great Power Partnership.

Areas of collaboration

Both countries are in the midst of a consequential election year, with India’s six-week national vote beginning on April 19 and the United States voting this fall. But these essential ties run deeper than any one administration on either side, even though the continuity of Indian administrations has been critical.

Still, to make this new Great Power Partnership paradigm stick will require more than rhetoric. The two countries need to make rapid advances along four fronts.

Defense co-production. It is in both countries’ interest to help India become the premier naval force and logistics hub across the Indian Ocean, as well as the munitions factory and backstop for a free and open Indo-Pacific. US-India collaboration on co-producing jet engines and armored vehicles should expand to include autonomous weapons with the goal of making the United States and India the bulwarks of the democratic defense industrial value chain.
Space collaboration, development, and exploration. In India, the United States has an ambitious, capable, and complementary partner with technical competence coupled with a cost-effective model for space endeavors. India’s space program will gain greatly in ability and ambition from close collaboration with US public and private actors. India offers scale and affordability to amplify US space investments and share the benefits with the Global South.
Development and governance of the digital economy driven by artificial intelligence (AI). The United States and India, as the world’s preeminent digital start-up nations, share an innovator’s perspective for digital governance. In contrast, a regulator’s perspective is more prevalent in Europe. It is in both countries’ interests to coordinate on shaping international AI digital governance that fosters responsible innovation and application.
Winning the hearts and minds of the Global South. India and China offer diametrically opposing visions for the Global South. China wants to enlist emerging nations into a countervailing bloc against the existing rules-based international order. India wants to enhance Global South representation within the existing international order to better reflect demographic and economic realities. The US-India partnership advances both India’s stature among the Global South and US outreach to the region. It is essential for both US and Indian interests that the Global South embraces and strengthens the rules-based international order. India is well-positioned to lead this effort.

Deepening the partnership

As democracies, the United States and India have a common interest in bolstering and modernizing the rules-based institutions that govern world affairs. Indeed, in the twenty-first century, the United States and India may shape a new international order as the United States and Europe did in the twentieth century. The largest American and Asian countries bear the responsibility to ensure that the twenty-first century international order equitably represents the Med-Atlantic, the Indo-Pacific, and the Global South—reinforcing their shared values of liberty and dignity for all.

The partnership between the United States and Europe is buttressed by cultural affinity and institutional solidarity through shared membership in NATO, the Group of Seven (G7), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and other groupings. The US-India partnership does not yet boast either cultural affinity or institutional solidarity at comparable levels, despite the rising force of the Indian diaspora in US society. In time, it can and should develop both.

India is projected to become the world’s third-largest economy by the end of the decade. The United States should lead the effort of inviting India to become a member of the G7 and the OECD. For their economic security, the United States and India should prioritize binding the Indo-Pacific nations to their collective economies more than that of China.

The United States and India have made great strides in coordination through multilateral institutional arrangements. These include the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology, the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue, and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (better known as the Quad). The frequency and scope of joint military exercises and intelligence sharing are also on the rise. US-India strategic dialogues on defense and economic coordination need to expand in depth and breadth to regularly engage functionaries in each respective administrative structure to facilitate greater interoperability and knowledge sharing.

The United States and India should also devote singular attention to advancing stronger institutional solidarity and people-to-people connections. Enhanced engagement between middle America and middle India holds the key. The United States is reinvigorating its domestic manufacturing across digital and industrial sectors while confronting a shortage of skilled technicians. India boasts a surfeit of graduates with technical skills looking for better employment. A US-India science and technology mobility agreement with prescreened skilled individuals from both nations would facilitate greater knowledge sharing and co-development between the two digital economies.

The US-India Great Power Partnership enjoys strong tailwinds, but its success is not inevitable. The relationship requires a considered understanding of the cultural, demographic, and political drivers at work in the two complex democracies. All too often, US-India discourse in bureaucratic circles and media outlets is prone to reflexive skepticism and mistrust. Both sides need a more reflective discernment of each other’s society and political system. In this area, the US and Indian business communities are leading the way with a strong sense of cooperation and comprehension. Overcoming what Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has described as “hesitations of history,” a constructive Great Power Partnership could advance core US-India interests and values going forward.

This article originally appeared in Atlantic Council.

China, Economic Interdependence, European Union, international affairs, Writing

Begging will not de-risk Brussels from Beijing

Samir Saran | Gautam Chikermane

Not narratives, not rhetoric: what the EU needs is to wake up from its strategic slumber and act on its China addiction

A new report by the European Union (EU) Chamber of Commerce in China and the China Macro Group, yawning its way between decoupling and de-risking, will be splashed in the media, discussed ad nauseam in think tank convenings, laughed at in Beijing, and laid to rest in the garbage bins of empty rhetoric. Titled “Riskful Thinking: Navigating the Politics of Economic Security”, the report is undergirded by the naive assumption that its 11 recommendations for China will be implemented.

The report effectively resorts to begging for China to adhere to the rules-based order. It recommends that Beijing steer clear of excessive self-reliance but allows considerable latitude for discussing the scope of the word ‘excessive’. It implores the world’s second-largest economy to increase transparency on laws that limit market access, blissfully forgetful of the opaque regime that helped incubate such laws in the first place. Then it urges China to define a common language on de-risking, ignorantly assuming that Chinese polity serves the interests of the EU.

Europe is being suffocated by the rules-based order of its own making—Beijing has weaponised the EU’s rules against itself, thereby asphyxiating its companies, consumers, and citizens.

Trade protectionism, Beijing’s erratic policy shifts, and the quest for localisation find themselves among the other appeals. In a cringeworthy moment, China is even requested to “Refrain from punishing companies for the actions of their home governments.”

Nothing in what is sought is inappropriate. Rather, what is bothersome is that it is being voiced in a 34,000-word, 56-page report that sees a US$19.35-trillion large grouping of 27 democratic nations bend before a US$18.56-trillion authoritarian regime. Besides an amused smile from the Chairman of Everything, Xi Jinping, for exposing the EU’s toxic dependence, this report will achieve little else.

On the other hand, the seven recommendations for the EU, may—and it is a big ‘may’—wake the grouping, and perhaps even the continent, from its strategic slumber. The most important among these is the one around rethinking supply chains of critical inputs and export control frameworks. Yet, here too, the report is unable to imagine a world without China. “Continue to proactively engage with China and reject calls for disengagement,” it recommends. Further, it seeks to remind the actors in this game—chambers of commerce, China-focused think tanks, and businesses—about de-risking but fails to define why this should be paid heed to this time around.

Finally, the report offers nine recommendations for European businesses. Being an industry chamber, some of them are better phrased and informed. For instance, it seeks to pre-empt legislative changes and political risk. It calls for conducting detailed supply chain reviews and risk assessments, as well as intensifying due diligence to determine exposure to potential shocks. It urges companies to monitor areas of risk such as public backlash or sudden changes in market conditions. But when it urges corporations to be prepared for emerging global regulations, it neglects that all ‘global’ regulatory actions are enfeebled by a Beijing that regularly refuses to abide by them.

The recent report sees a US$19.35-trillion large grouping of 27 democratic nations bend before a US$18.56-trillion authoritarian regime. Besides an amused smile from the Chairman of Everything, Xi Jinping, for exposing the EU’s toxic dependence, this report will achieve little else.

Overall, the report, like several before it, illustrates the risks that European businesses face in China and assumes that a benevolent Beijing knows the problems and will do something to fix them. Worse, it details for the benefit of China exactly how dependent the EU is on its markets, its investments, and its manufacturing.

Given that collective economic security shaped by national issues is a subset of collective national security designed for a common cause, carving out an agenda of mutualism will be impossible for the EU. It is not the same as the EU coming together and taking a collective defence/security stand against Russia at the time of conflict (and not prior to it), for instance.

China is appraised as a commercial venture, and it is unlikely that commercial entities will bear the cost of national security until it is too late and too high for them and others. And then they will; just ask the German Industry about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But most businesses work on hindsight and not foresight when it comes to security issues as they have a false belief in their ability to shape outcomes.

When the Stuttgart-based Mercedes-Benz, for instance, decides to deepen investments in China, despite the EU scrambling for an exit strategy, it shows how strongly the corporate tail of a company is wagging the national security dog of an entire continent. That 19.67 percent of the Mercedes stock is held by two Chinese companies (9.98 percent by BAIC Group, and 9.69 percent by Li Shufu) is not only influencing decisions in one of EU’s most high-profile companies but also weakening the EU hand on strategic affairs between Beijing and Brussels. Worse, instead of finding ways to get out of China, the report states that European companies find that decoupling, i.e. “detaching completely from the Chinese market” from China is a risk.

The impassioned quest for benevolence from the Emperor seems to be the European approach towards China. Transborder calls for ‘alms’ must not pass off as strategy—they are not.

So, while China has weaponised everything, from trade and investments to technology and culture, the EU remains trapped in the pincer of its strategic-commercial constraints on the one side and the rise of ‘wokism’ with a Confucius colour on the other. It is being suffocated by the rules-based order of its own making—Beijing has weaponised the EU’s rules against itself, thereby asphyxiating its companies, consumers, and citizens. Against these democratic constraints and strategic confusions, the Beijing model is unambiguous in its direction and its action.

Take a step back and what you see from the Beijing-Brussels midpoint—New Delhi—is a feeble EU approach to China. Blissful in its strategic slumber, lying on the bed of post-World War II prosperity, with eyes wide shut, Brussels remains addicted to Chinese goods, Chinese markets, and Chinese manufacturing. It appears nothing will change, even as Beijing runs circles around the EU, watching it squirm, and awaiting the next round of periodic rhetoric, even as it plans a deeper dive into the strategic vitals of the EU. The impassioned quest for benevolence from the Emperor seems to be the European approach towards China. Transborder calls for ‘alms’ must not pass off as strategy—they are not.

From the vantage of New Delhi, it is not only the possibility of Russia joining the dragon’s choir that is imminent and worrisome; it is rather the European opera halls hosting this choir that present a clear and present danger. The most important learning from this document for those reading it from outside is scary. If the lesson of its energy dependence on Russia, and the consequent decapitating impact on its security in recent years, has not taught the EU ‘Strategy 101’, nothing ever will. Isn’t it time to reconcile to this simple fact: that the EU is a non-strategic actor and, without radical rethinking—always will be?

The original article appeared in ORF Website, March 30, 2024

India, international affairs, Writing

Raisina Chronicles: India’s Global Public Square

Read it here.

climate change, India, international affairs, Sustainable Development, Writing

Raisina Files 2024 – The Call of This Century: Create and Cooperate

This edition of the Raisina Files is infused with this conviction. The call of this century is to dispense with cynicism and to embrace what is appearing and emerging. A call to work towards inaugurating an inclusive and sustainable future. Rising up to the task requires us to create and cooperate, to build communities fit for this purpose.

This volume comprises contributions from an ensemble of thinkers who problematise, and attempt to answer, the pressing questions that matter. What are the power dynamics between a State and its citizens in this age of the digital? How do we protect our children in their always-online world, while preserving their agency and rights? If the current Western-led mechanisms of international aid are failing to meet the needs, how do we ensure that assistance truly reaches the grassroots? What transformations do our food systems require so they can be fit for the zero-hunger goal? As we move to the green frontiers, how will women lead the change? And how does the global financial system become just that—global?

Read it here.

Arabian Sea, India, India UAE relations, international affairs, UAE, Writing

Reclaiming the storied legacy of the Arabian Sea

APM Modi and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed are putting in place the building blocks for a prosperous Arabian Sea community

Post-Independence, India has been unfair to the sea that laps against our western shoreline. We forget that the Arabian Sea has long been a fertile bridge for the exchange of ideas, stories, commerce, and culture. Khazanas of knowledge have flowed through its waters and lasting friendships have been forged. More than any Indian Prime Minister (PM) before him, Narendra Modi recognises the injustice of this neglect. His upcoming visit to Abu Dhabi will be his seventh — six more than any predecessor. Before his first trip in 2015, no Indian PM had set foot in the Emirates for over three decades.

While numbers are often inconsequential, sometimes they do matter. As the B-school adage goes: If you can’t count it, it doesn’t count. Seven prime ministerial visits paint a picture. It signifies a change in the relationship and a growing appreciation of each other’s importance. What India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have built is a special affinity. It reflects a new reality, one where the India-UAE bond is no longer voluntary but mandatory, not a choice but an instinct. PM Modi and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan have undertaken a systematic overhaul: We are now mutually indispensable.

At the same time, he is attending the World Government Summit, a platform for deliberating innovation to deal with emerging governance challenges.

The very texture of this relationship is different. PM Modi is travelling to inaugurate the first Hindu temple in the UAE, an exemplar of Abu Dhabi’s promotion of a more pluralistic society. At the same time, he is attending the World Government Summit, a platform for deliberating innovation to deal with emerging governance challenges. In tandem, these act as a synecdoche for the larger relationship: The two nations are partnering with each other while celebrating who they are. They seek to be part of each other’s change while not seeking to change the other. India has friendly relations with many nations, and yet such friendships often come with prescriptive clauses of what India can or cannot do; of what India should or should not be. A large part of why the India UAE relationship is special is because it is descriptive, not prescriptive.

Embedded deeply in the India-UAE bond is a celebration of each other for what we are — plural yet singular. Plural because of our diversity of cultures and customs, and the heterogeneity inherent in our nations. Singular because we have navigated uncharted territory, and plotted an unmapped path for ourselves. In their own unique ways, both countries are exceptions in the region and in today’s times. The UAE has created a lush economy in the middle of an arid desert. India’s specific development challenges have no parallels, with individual states the size of entire nations. For both of our countries, there have been no models to follow, no moulds to fit into. This is the foundation of our mutual respect. It will continue to be the bedrock of our relationship as we transform incomes, update infrastructure, and move from an analogue to a digital world.

Diaspora lies at the centre of our relationship. More than 60,000 Indians have signed up to attend the PM’s address at the Zayed Sports City Stadium. However, statistics of this sort do not do true justice to the real story of the Indian diaspora in the UAE. The fact is Indians today share the top floor of skyscrapers in Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Positions that by default went to Europeans and Americans, today, see a large proliferation of Indians, whether in finance, energy, or infrastructure. They are being recognised as valued advisors, creative talents, and financial wizards, rubbing shoulders with Emiratis in building a 21st-century nation and contributing to the future of the UAE. This cohort of Emiratis and Indians is working to make the UAE a global hub for our century, even as they make India a global economic powerhouse for the benefit of the country, the region, and humankind at large.

Positions that by default went to Europeans and Americans, today, see a large proliferation of Indians, whether in finance, energy, or infrastructure.

As China rose, a small clique of cities benefitted: Hong Kong, Singapore, London, and New York. India’s journey, from four trillion dollars to 30, will see the world benefit. Abu Dhabi and Dubai will hold a privileged position in this odyssey. Even as India benefits, so will the global ambitions of the UAE. Moving forward, the UAE will be the new Gateway to India. It will be a talent hub, connecting Indian opportunities and Indian talent with the rest of the world. It will be a trade hub, with goods — and energy — that flow to and from India passing through it. It will be a finance hub, where it will be able to source at scale the capital required to sate India’s growing appetite.

PM Modi and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed are putting in place the building blocks for a prosperous Arabian Sea community. They are restoring the sea to the storied position it held in antiquity, refreshing it and bringing it into the 21st century. This community will offer people-centric, development-first, and growth-led solutions for Africa, Europe, and the Indo-Pacific. The space between the Gulf and the subcontinent will reclaim its role as the wellspring of inclusive globalisation in this century, just as it was millennia ago.

This article appeared originally in Hindustan Times.

Geopolitics, India, international affairs, Writing

4 pathways to cooperation amid geopolitical fragmentation

The world is experiencing geopolitical turbulence. Wars are raging across the Middle East, Europe and Africa; 2023 marked the largest ever single-year increase in forcibly displaced people.

In addition to these security challenges, the world faces a warming planet and fragile global economy that can only be addressed through joint action.

Despite this daunting picture, there are ways the international community can still work together. Experts from the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Geopolitics tell us how, in a new report entitled Shaping Cooperation in a Fragmenting World.

The report offers innovative pathways towards greater global cooperation in four areas: global security, climate action, emerging technology and international trade.

Below are the key highlights, as outlined by our experts.

1. Global Security – advancing global security in an age of distrust

By Bruce Jones, Ravi Agrawal, Antonio de Aguiar Patriota, Karin von Hippel, Lynn Kuok and Susana Malcorra

The starting point must be to recognize that distrust is, in the short and medium term at least, a baked-in feature of geopolitical reality.

Managing this and forging responses to global challenges despite it requires recognizing that collaboration is possible even under conditions of intense distrust: the US and the Soviet Union repeatedly proved this during the Cold War.

Third parties are key to managing the distrust through quiet diplomacy (often at or through the UN), brokering offramps, de-escalation and crisis avoidance. So-called “middle powers” have in the past played a key role in great power conflict prevention and de-escalation and are an important part of this moving forwards.

Although this term has, until recently, been confined to Western countries, shifts in the global balance of power mean that it extends beyond the West to “rising” powers elsewhere.

A standing mechanism that links the western major and middle powers with the non-Western ones (Brazil, India, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates and so on) would create a diplomatic mechanism that could straddle the increasingly bifurcated worlds of the G7, Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad) and the expanded BRICs.

2. Climate Change – rethinking climate governance

By Samir Saran and Danny Quah

There is now a need to rethink global climate governance. The fundamental imbalance is this that while the developed world has been the key contributor to historical emissions, future emissions will be concentrated in the developing world. It is necessary to not just increase the amount of private capital deployed in the Global South, but also to ensure the scope of such investment is widened to include adaptation.

Similarly, the technology needed to scale up green energy solutions also remains concentrated in the developed world and China. The mandate and lending patterns of multilateral development banks should be changed and the start-up sector in the emerging world should be repositioned towards climate goals.

At the same time, multilateral forums such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the G20 must better acknowledge and differentiate impacts of climate change on health outcomes across genders and craft women-led initiatives to mobilize societal support for political action.

3. Emerging Technology – taming technology together

By Samir Saran, Flavia Alves and Vera Songwe

The prolific pace of advancement of frontier technologies and its pursuit by a multitude of state and non-state actors, with varied motivations, has opened a new chapter in contemporary geopolitics.

To ensure that efforts at tech regulation and stemming their proliferation succeed, countries will be required to undertake innovation in policy-making, where governments take on board all the stakeholders – tech corporations, civil society, academia and the research community.

Similar to the responsibility to protect (R2P) principle developed by the UN for protecting civilians from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity, the international community must create a regulatory R2P obligation for states to protect civilians from the harms of emerging technologies.

And the Global South must convene a standing conference of the parties (COP) for future technologies, along the lines of COP for climate change negotiations.

4. International Trade – expanding and rebalancing trade

By Nicolai Ruge and Danny Quah

Strengthening and rebalancing the trade system requires expanding the trade agenda, not limiting it. The broader the benefits delivered by trade, the more firmly it will be aligned with national and global priorities.

Trade that is designed to deliver on globally shared priorities as defined by the UN Sustainable Development Goals will gain the trust of governments and citizens and be “fenced off” from geopolitical rivalry rather than disrupted for near-term political wins.

To rebuild global trust in the benefits of the multilateral trade system, it is of paramount importance that the Global South – and particularly least-developed countries – are not cut out of the growth and development pathways that participation in international trade provides.

Mechanisms must be in place to ensure they are able to take advantage of new opportunities created by shifts in global value chains.

How can these pathways be successful?

Throughout the report , one common factor emerged as key to enhancing cooperation across these four domains: inclusivity.

To address challenges in global security, climate change, emerging technology and trade, the international community must prioritize diverse voices and involve actors that have previously been on the margins of multilateral fora.

With this approach as a North Star, building cooperation is possible.

This publication originally appeared in World Economic Forum.

2024 Elections, international affairs, world order, Writing

2024: The year that changed democracy?

The Indian general election will go beyond reaffirming the power of democracy; it could make 2024 the year that took democracy home to the people of the world.

Over 50 nations will hold elections in 2024, causing an unprecedented churn in political mandates, governing institutions, and international affairs. No continent will be exempt.

Globally, national progress is being assessed feverishly and people’s voices are coalescing into verdicts. Indeed, 2024 will be consequential for democracy and the world order.

This is the first time in the digital age that major democracies will go to polls in the same year. The key electoral attributes of individual participation, mass mobilisation, political messaging and outreach will soon assume centre stage. But so will the inescapable elements that pervert democratic processes—online misinformation, disinformation, and propaganda. If the United States (US) election of 2016, with its deluge of fake news, was a watershed event, it may pale in comparison to what 2024 portends.

Globally, national progress is being assessed feverishly and people’s voices are coalescing into verdicts.

Among the most significant and keenly watched elections will be India’s. The world’s largest democracy—and arguably the world’s longest-running pluralistic society, given that the ancient doctrine of “dharma” was, in a sense, India’s original unwritten Constitution—will deliver a fresh mandate in the era of ChatGPT, deepfakes, and vlogs.

What is unique about the Indian general election is, quite simply, that it involves India. The country is one of the fastest-growing economies. It has completed a remarkably successful tenure as president of the G20. It is the single most development-obsessed geography, with its vision of inclusive development encompassing all of the Global South. One of India’s first interventions as G20 president, for instance, was to host the ‘Voice of the Global South Summit’, where it engaged with 125 other developing nations to understand their concerns and to shape its priorities at the G20 accordingly.

India is also one of the world’s most advanced digital societies. It has consolidated its position as a global tech-enabled services hub; its world-class model of digital public infrastructure (DPI) is being adopted and adapted by advanced and developing countries alike; and it is the highest-ranked country internationally in terms of AI skill penetration and talent concentration.

The key electoral attributes of individual participation, mass mobilisation, political messaging and outreach will soon assume centre stage.

The upcoming election will witness the interplay of India’s democratic urges, developmental aspirations, and technological sophistication.

During its G20 presidency, India rightly laid claim to being the “mother of democracy”, and re-emphasised democratic principles as an Eastern virtue. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi pointed out at the G20 Parliamentary Speakers’ Summit, millennia-old Indian scriptures mention the prevalence of assemblies, open debates, and democratic deliberations, “where collective decisions were made for the betterment of society”. This democratic concern for the greater good underpins the civilisational attribute of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ (One Earth, One Family, One Future) that has guided India’s internal and external engagements.

India’s economic prowess, digital achievements, and diplomatic capabilities, coupled with its democratic credentials, make it the North Star of the Global South. Developing nations engaged in political and socio-cultural soul-searching need no longer choose between an unrelatable West and an authoritarian China. An Indian approach and example, more attuned to the needs of developing and emerging economies, is at hand.

It is the single most development-obsessed geography, with its vision of inclusive development encompassing all of the Global South.

The great Indian election: Delivery versus narratives

Today, India is on the verge of becoming a US$ 5-trillion economy. The International Monetary Fund says India could cross this milestone in 2026-27. Since the mid-2010s, the country’s GDP per capita has risen swiftly—from around US$ 1,600 per capita in 2014 to over US$ 2,612 today. Yet, the Indian leadership has advocated for a shift from a “GDP-centric worldview to a human-centric one”, and a liberal, people-focused economic vision that ensures personal growth and well-being.

This vision is in evidence across India. Over 99.9 percent of Indian adults have an Aadhaar digital identity today, transforming their ability to access public services. The country operates the world’s largest financial inclusion programme, serving over 500 million individuals, with 55.5 percent of these bank accounts belonging to women. And 30 million Indians make online financial transactions every day using the homegrown Unified Payments Interface and galvanising the global digital economy.

As the election of 2024 nears, other changes are palpable as well. Between 2006 and 2021, India lifted 415 million people out of poverty. A long-standing Indian focus on women-led development has reaped dividends: women now occupy 36 percent of senior and leadership positions at mid-sized businesses in India, surpassing the global average by 4 percent. Since 2013, the infant mortality rate has dropped from 39.082 to 26.619, and maternal mortality from 167 (per 100,000 live births) to 103. The country’s food grain production touched a record 315.7 million tonnes in 2021-22, bolstering food security.

The country operates the world’s largest financial inclusion programme, serving over 500 million individuals, with 55.5 percent of these bank accounts belonging to women.

These are inspiring stories. These are the reports of progress Indian citizens would like to wake up to every morning. Yet global media narratives mislead and distort and deliberately draw attention to cleavages and fault lines that any multicultural society, anywhere in the world, has to manage. A cursory look at leading Western media outlets—print, television, and digital—shows that they have chosen to position themselves as the ‘Opposition’ to Prime Minister Modi in these coming elections.

In 2019, Time magazine branded Prime Minister Modi as “India’s divider-in-chief” and wondered—misguidedly, as it turned out—if “the world’s largest democracy [could] ensure another five years of a Modi government”. The New York Times proclaims shrilly that “Since Mr. Modi took power in 2014, India’s once-proud claim to being a free democratic society has collapsed on many fronts”. The Washington Post believes that India appears to be “sliding into authoritarianism”. And the BBC—citing an Oxfam report—laments that the “richest 1% own 40.5% of India’s wealth”, failing to note that even as India creates wealth at the top it spurs mobility at the bottom, and is thus intrinsically different from the nature of European oligarchy.

PM Modi has been identified as one of the world’s most tech-savvy leaders. His government is using technology to deliver benefits to citizens and to communicate its goals at a population scale. There are thus two competing forces at work—on the one hand, the use of digital platforms by the global media to position itself as the anti-Modi coalition; and on the other hand, the use of technology by the Indian leadership to deliver transformational growth and attract people to their proposition.

There are thus two competing forces at work—on the one hand, the use of digital platforms by the global media to position itself as the anti-Modi coalition.

The Indian election will help us decisively evaluate the influence of the global media on domestic affairs, and answer two central questions. Can media narratives trump delivery, or will good governance and last-mile success trump narratives? And would we have been guilty of overhyping the role of the media if, in the end, lived experience and on-ground delivery win?

South rising: Why Indian democracy matters

Democracy is not a Western endowment and need not have a Western texture and tonality. Indeed, democracy for India is—as it is for much of the Global South—about promoting inclusive growth, infrastructure investments, climate action, women-led development, the mass adoption of environment-friendly lifestyles, and the establishment of DPI that universalises public service delivery, among other interventions. These are the building blocks of equity, without which there is no meaningful democracy. India has delivered in each of these areas. Its advocacy of women-led development at the G20 was accompanied by the passage of a landmark bill that reserves one-third of the seats in the lower house of the Indian parliament and state legislative assemblies for women. It is working on multiple fronts to meet its pledge of achieving net zero by 2070; its pathbreaking LiFE (lifestyle for environment) movement is gaining traction worldwide; and a broad spectrum of nations are partnering with India to build their DPI.

The country has co-opted big tech platforms as part of its growth story and upheld Indian laws while rebuffing sometimes anarchist Southern Californian ideas about freedom of expression.

India also recognises that for the deeply heterogeneous societies of the developing world, online safety is far more important than evangelical and absolutist free speech. Even as American platforms strive to homogenise the global understanding of free speech, India has wisely defended its Constitutional scheme of “reasonable restrictions”. The country has co-opted big tech platforms as part of its growth story and upheld Indian laws while rebuffing sometimes anarchist Southern Californian ideas about freedom of expression.

Collectively, these characteristics make democratic India a lighthouse for countries of the rising South. Since the pioneering ‘Voice of the Global South Summit’ at the outset of its G20 presidency in January 2023, all the way to the New Delhi Leaders’ Summit in September 2023, India has been hailed as the legitimate spokesperson of the Global South. At such a juncture, the Indian general election—the biggest democratic exercise on the planet—will go beyond reaffirming the power of democracy; it could make 2024 the year that took democracy home to the people of the world.

Source : ORF Website

climate change, COP28, Global South, international affairs, Writing

Controversies aside, COP28 is a real chance to put Global South at centre

As the world reels from the impact of the hottest year on record in 2023, the attention of the global community turns to COP28 for solutions to the climate challenge. While the previous decades of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations have failed to deliver effective and equitable climate action, this year’s COP in the UAE is a unique opportunity to move from empty promises to real action.

Real action on climate requires pragmatism. It would centre the specific needs of energy-poor countries in the Global South. It would recognise that the energy transition for much of the world is just that: a transition, in which legacy fuels are both rendered more efficient and used to finance the scale-up of renewables. Sermonising western COP presidencies have rarely understood the basic needs of the developing world.

While COP28 might have attracted concern for naming a president-designate who also runs a large fossil fuel company, the fact is that this is cause for optimism. Dr Sultan Al Jaber does indeed run Abu Dhabi’s national oil company — but he also founded the renewable energy giant Masdar, which pioneered efforts to spread green capital across multiple countries and geographies. A pragmatic climate solution for the Global South would similarly prioritise the spread of enterprise, of solutions, and of technology.

Dr Al Jaber and COP28 have a hard task ahead of them. Estimates indicate that nearly all developed nations, with only two exceptions, are significantly off-course in meeting their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). This stark deviation stands as the primary obstacle preventing the realisation of the Paris Climate Goals. Those most culpable for the climate crisis persist in evading their responsibilities. Responsibility for climate finance is even more important. Developing economies will require around $2 trillion annually to meet emission targets and cope with the impact of climate change. In stark contrast, the world has fixated on bickering over a meagre $100 billion annual target for financing from the developed world. We are currently fighting over bicycles when what is required is a Mercedes.

The UAE COP is well placed to establish a new pathway that places the Global South at the centre. It also comes at a time when there is already momentum around Global South led multilateral cooperation. In particular, the Indian G20 Presidency has already demonstrated the ability to build consensus around such a climate agenda. Notably, the inclusion of the Green Development Pact in the New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration creates a cohesive narrative around climate action as a catalyst for sustainable and inclusive growth. India has highlighted a few priority action areas which must now be taken forward in the coming year, and COP28 is an ideal starting point.

First, reducing cost of green capital in the developing world is crucial, as these can be nearly seven times higher than in OECD countries. The IMF estimates that emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have accounted for 80% of global growth since 2008. However, only 25% of climate finance has flowed to these geographies. By design, the current international financial architecture prevents growth from being green. It is imperative to create a global inventory of green projects with a guarantee that each project can access capital at a similar cost. This guarantee can be facilitated by a transnational institution similar to the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). Response to a planetary crisis must not be compromised by perceived political risks.

Second, COP28 must look to institutionalise climate action as an explicit mandate for Multilateral Development Banks, aligning with the MDB reform agenda put forward during the Indian G20 Presidency. The recently expanded BRICS grouping can also be utilised to further the reform agenda. The newer capital-rich members of the grouping should be galvanised to create a line of funds for Green Transitions within the New Development Bank. This can serve as a boutique model which can increase pressure on West-controlled institutions to accelerate their efforts.

Third, progress must be made on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) with a focus on identifying concrete instruments to meet the distinct adaptation finance needs of different regions, particularly for the most vulnerable communities. Furthermore, the GGA should serve as a platform to underscore the repercussions of climate change on health and gender, identifying integrated strategies to tackle these interconnected crises. The Loss and Damage Fund must also be operationalised with concrete financing commitment from the developed world.

Fourth, innovation in climate technologies in the Global South must be encouraged. In particular, green startups should be supported by creating effective knowledge sharing mechanism within the UNFCCC and establishing a social impact fund to support promising green projects.

Finally, it is crucial to diversify and make green technology value chains accessible to all. Presently, China holds disproportionate control over the raw materials and technologies vital for green energy. It is critical to break free from this monopoly and ensure that Beijing does not wield a veto over our green future.

Source : Times of India, December 3, 2023

international affairs, Speaking