E-Commerce, FDI, India, MSME, tech and media

In rising e-Commerce storm, India protects its ship

MNC, investor, institutions, Swadeshi, disconnect, ownership, regulators, geostrategic, data, economy, platform, data, technology, companies, Silicon Valley, algorithms, Economic rights, civil liberties, autonomous, privacy, safeguards, MSME, FDI

The debate on the global governance, ownership and management of data is today confronted by three new realities. The first is that the custodians of data тАУ technology companies in Silicon Valley that famously promised to bring the world together and solve most of its problems through innovative algorithms тАФ have been found wanting in the protection of economic rights and civil liberties that accrue to their users in developing countries. Not only have digital platforms serially misused the data that their consumers hand over in trust, they have also done little to generate local value that can create jobs, contextual content and/or spur secondary and tertiary innovation.

Second, it is increasingly clear that local jurisdictions, however flawed or premature their regulatory ambience may appear today, are the most effective forums to guarantee even a semblance of protection to users of digital platforms. No longer can emerging markets seek refuge under foreign laws that promise enhanced privacy safeguards on paper, but in practice ignore the mischievous harvesting of such data by intelligence or law enforcement agencies of states in which technology giants are incorporated. Put simply, the hypocrisy of тАЬautonomousтАЭ and responsible self-regulation stands exposed.

And third, digital markets donтАЩt accurately drive valuations of technology. While IPOs may determine the growth expectations of a tech company, their worth must also be driven by the ability (or not) of their peers to provide the service at competitive rates. The debates on data localisation, done to death, appear to have altogether ignored this reality. The fact is that that IndiaтАЩs entry into the тАЬdata storageтАЭ market will exponentially bring down price points. The Y2K, BPO and Euro conversion episodes have proven that India is capable of providing digital services at a fraction of the cost sought by others. If India is a financially sustainable destination for data, should hackneyed arguments on localisation be revisited in the light of new economic realities?

All three realities are implicated in the debate on IndiaтАЩs e-commerce policy, which will define how the country trades, transacts and consumes in the coming years. E-commerce is where big-ticket investments are likely to happen; generating jobs, supporting MSMEs and incubating e-product creators along the way.

E-commerce is where big-ticket investments are likely to happen; generating jobs, supporting MSMEs and incubating e-product creators along the way.

Look at the facts as they appear. India has the worldтАЩs largest population in the 18 to 35 age group at over 440 million. An estimated half of this population is already in the workforce. As income levels rise, so will purchasing power, which in turn will implicate their choices ranging from clothes to shoes to books to gadgets to news to entertainment to food and beverages.

Affordable access to internet and smartphones (no more in the realm of possibility but already a reality) will facilitate both access to information (for instance, comparing prices and features) as well as greater agency (buying what meets your need at the best price). This is the тАШmillennial opportunityтАЩ that India is betting on and e-retail does not want to miss. It is unsurprising then that this sector has proven so controversialтАФand has become a flashpoint for debate about digital rules, policies and globalization around the world. India is not immune to these either and is witnessing a heated debate on some of its recent policy maneuvers.

Just over two years ago, it seemed like India was willing to fully integrate its emerging e-commerce market with the rapidly expanding global digital commerce, allowing 100% FDI via the automatic route. Big ticket investments by e-commerce giants like Walmart and Amazon were then seen as an endorsement of IndiaтАЩs continuing push towards globalisation and rejection of protectionist nationalism propounded by organisations like the Swadeshi Jagran Manch and practiced by previous governments through their decisions.

Global investors and institutions saw this as a natural consequence of IndiaтАЩs rise. After all, the assumption was that a $3 trillion economy aspiring to become a $5 trillion economy by its next elections cycle of 2024 must acquiesce to the financial and commercial logic of globalization. India, as all other capitalist democracies, would welcome the innovations and efficiencies of global MNCs, even though it ran the risk of their displacing or buying-out local peers.

Yet, last year-endтАЩs revised rules тАФ which the government claims have only elaborated and reasserted the terms set in 2017 тАФ have proved that rising industrial powers with sense of sovereignty and alive to their size, rarely make such simple trade-offs.

First came a new FDI Press Note, which limited online retailers from selling the products of vendors that they had invested in and offering heavy discounting on selected products. Next came a new draft e-commerce policy, which tightened rules in relation to online retail practices (including intermediary liability) along with imposing a raft of new data sharing mandates.

With the e-commerce market set to grow from $35 billion to $100 billion by 2022, it is unsurprising that the stakes are high and that the Indian government has received flak from some quarters for what they perceive as an attempt to тАШprotectтАЩ local industries. All of a sudden, India is seen as abandoning its commitments to free trade and investment.

With the e-commerce market set to grow from $35 billion to $100 billion by 2022, it is unsurprising that the stakes are high and that the Indian government has received flak from some quarters for what they perceive as an attempt to тАШprotectтАЩ local industries. All of a sudden, India is seen as abandoning its commitments to free trade and investment.

What explains this disconnect between the expectations that some in the global financial community have of India and the realities of its political economy and IndiaтАЩs choices?

The answer lies in the underlying shifts in the structure of the global economy and IndiaтАЩs own rising aspirations. Simply put, the global economy is undergoing a new industrial transformation, with digital technologies spearheading this change. A small group of technology platforms, largely based in the US and China, is increasingly mediating billions of dollars of global trade and trillions of bytes in information and communication flows.

Access to personal information and ownership over data infrastructures have allowed these firms to entrench their dominance in markets around the world. In the process they have restructured existing economic and even social relations in a manner that better suits their commercial interests. Unsurprisingly then, there is great uncertainty about how data flows, technology platforms and digital ecosystems will implicate market and state power in the international system.

India is emerging as a global power amidst these realities. It certainly does not aspire to re-orient the moorings of the liberal international order; having benefited from an extended period of peace for its own development. Nevertheless, there is a growing consensus in India that even as the United States and China pry open markets abroad, they are neither interested in creating value┬аfor┬аthose markets nor nurturing sustainable economic development in these destinations. Around the world, nation states are reassessing frameworks of law, regulation and industry practices that have governed the digital economy.

IndiaтАЩs objective with regards to its digital economy is three-fold:

First, to create regulatory stability (a precondition for investment that scores over other determinants) and a level playing field for all market actors. Agnostic or ambivalent regulations that merely preserve of the value generated by foreign technology companies will not help Indian consumers in any way. If IndiaтАЩs regulatory policy for digital technologies appears in flux, it is because the exact determinants of value creation are uncertain. Regulators around the world are currently attempting to quantify the digital economy and map out the disaggregated set of economic activities that comprise it. However, any sensible policy is likely to have a bias that offsets the current uneven playing field developed and controlled by a handful of transnational corporations.

Second, to create opportunities for local enterprise and value chains. For an economy that is aspiring towards a $5 trillion GDP, this is a natural compulsionтАФboth for electoral reasons and for geostrategic ones. This does not necessarily imply relying on ChinaтАЩs techno-nationalist playbook. India does not seek to expel foreign firms from its markets in order to create domestic champions. Rather, it is attempting to create local value through digital supply chains that have high scale and increasing presence. India must respond to the demands of jobs, social mobility and domestic enterprise. It has a once in a century opportunity to use the тАЬdata economyтАЭ to transform from a mere collective of billion consumers to a large economy.

Finally, it has to create a globally competitive digital market. This is probably a central challenge of our times. Proprietary data sets have allowed a handful of technology companies to dominate existing and new markets through sheer information asymmetry. Even domestic competitors in the US and EU are questioning the relevance of competition jurisprudence and theory. It is only to be expected that India should develop its own policy propositions for the same.

The great industrial powers of the previous centuries have protected cutting edge industries in one form or another. In the late-19th and early-20th century, the United States ranked amongst the most enthusiastic levelers of tariffs on British goods. JapanтАЩs then infamous Ministry of International Trade and Industry protected domestic industries through the 1950s and 60s until it became a cause of concern in the US. The rise of ChinaтАЩs internet giants was enabled entirely by keeping American technology firms out of the domestic economy. India will not follow that same playbook тАФ it does not have the luxury of creating exceptions for its rise while trying to impose a different set of rules for its peers in the international system.

Instead, India will focus on creation of value for the Indian consumer, who is the primary producer and consumer of data. Foreign technology companies wanting to do business in India should sidestep shrill debates on data localisation .Their primary objective ought to be the elevation of the Indian digital economy from a high-volume, low-intensity engagement to high-volume, high-intensity engagement. The interaction of Indians with data in all its forms тАФ audio, visual, text-based тАФ will catalyse the creation of a new cadre of data scientists capable of tailoring platform engagement in multiple languages and cultural contexts. The value so generated, by jobs, experience and improved digital services, will not only benefit Indians but also the bottom lines of these companies and their ability to do business in any other part of the world. Fair and sophisticated rules on the management and ownership of data will follow subsequently.

TodayтАЩs reality is that globalization is increasingly being driven by voluminous flows of data. These flows are generating enormous value for those individuals, industries and geographies that can analyse and monetise them. It is also these very actors who well set the terms of this new globalizationтАФthe new rules of trade, commerce, investment and security.

TodayтАЩs reality is that globalization is increasingly being driven by voluminous flows of data. These flows are generating enormous value for those individuals, industries and geographies that can analyse and monetise them. It is also these very actors who well set the terms of this new globalizationтАФthe new rules of trade, commerce, investment and security.

IndiaтАЩs policy shifts must not be an attempt to choose between globalization and protectionismтАФthe choice is obviously the former, even though electoral compulsions certainly do push political parties towards the latter. Instead, home to the worldтАЩs largest surplus of data and the largest cohort of consumers, India must attempt to ensure that it emerges as a beneficiary and rule-maker of the digital economy once this period of churn settles. The road to this would be paved with regulatory stability, policies that bias growth to cater to its size and specific needs and having the political courage to remain outside of popular herds and hashtags as it undertakes the above.

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рдЗрддрд┐рд╣рд╛рд╕ рдХрд╛ рдмрджрд▓рд╛: рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдХрд╛ рдЙрджрдп

Samir Saran

рдХреНрдпрд╛ рднрд╛рд░рдд 21рд╡реАрдВ рд╕рджреА рдХреЛ рдкрд░рд┐рднрд╛рд╖рд┐рдд рдХрд░рдиреЗ рд╡рд╛рд▓реЗ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдФрд░ рд╣рд┐рдВрдж-рдкреНрд░рд╢рд╛рдВрдд рдХреЗ рджреЛрд░рд╛рд╣реЗ рдкрд░ рдЦрдбрд╝рд╛ рд╣реИ?

рднрд╛рд░рдд, 21рд╡реАрдВ рд╕рджреА, рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛, рд╣рд┐рдВрдж-рдкреНрд░рд╢рд╛рдВрдд, рд╕рдореАрд░ рд╕рд░рди, рдЪреАрди, рд╕рдВрддреБрд▓рд┐рдд, рд╕рд╣рдорддрд┐, рдПрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛, рдПрдХреАрдХрд░рдг, рд╕рд╛рдВрд╕реНрдХреГрддрд┐рдХ, рдЖрд░реНрдерд┐рдХ, рд╕реИрдиреНрдп, рдмреАрдЖрд░рдЖрдИ

рдирд╛рд╕рд╛ рдХрд╛ рдмреНрд▓реНрдпреВ рдорд╛рд░реНрдмрд▓ рдкреНрд░реЛрдЬреЗрдХреНрдЯ

тАЬрд╣рд┐рдВрдж-рдкреНрд░рд╢рд╛рдВрддтАЭ рдЦрдмрд░реЛрдВ рдореЗрдВ рд╣реИред рдЕрдореЗрд░рд┐рдХрд╛ рдиреЗ рдЕрдкрдиреА рдкреНрд░рд╢рд╛рдВрдд рдХрдорд╛рди рдХрд╛ рдирд╛рдо рдмрджрд▓рдХрд░ тАЬрд╣рд┐рдВрдж-рдкреНрд░рд╢рд╛рдВрдд рдХрдорд╛рдитАЭ рд░рдЦ рджрд┐рдпрд╛ рд╣реИ, рднрд╛рд░рдд рдФрд░ рдЗрдВрдбреЛрдиреЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рджреНрд╡рд╛рд░рд╛ рд░реЗрдЦрд╛рдВрдХрд┐рдд рд╕рд╛рдЭрд╛ рдХреНрд╖реЗрддреНрд░реАрдп рд╡рд┐рдЬрд╝рди рдЗрд╕рдХреА рдХреЗрдВрджреНрд░реАрдпрддрд╛ рдХреЛ рдкреНрд░рдореБрдЦрддрд╛ рджреЗрддрд╛ рд╣реИ рдФрд░ рднрд╛рд░рдд рдХреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рдЗрд╕ рдХреНрд╖реЗрддреНрд░ рдХрд╛ рд░рд╛рдЬрдиреАрддрд┐рдХ рдорд╣рддреНрд╡ рд╕рд┐рдВрдЧрд╛рдкреБрд░ рдореЗрдВ рдкреНрд░рдзрд╛рдирдордВрддреНрд░реА рдирд░реЗрдиреНрджреНрд░ рдореЛрджреА рдХреЗ рд╡рд┐рджреЗрд╢ рдиреАрддрд┐ рд╕реЗ рд╕рдВрдмрдВрдзрд┐рдд рднрд╛рд╖рдг рдХрд╛ рдХреЗрдВрджреНрд░ рдерд╛ред рдпреЗ рд╕рдм рдЪреАрди рдХреЗ рд╣реИрд░рд╛рди рдХрд░ рджреЗрдиреЗ рд╡рд╛рд▓реЗ рдЙрджрдп рдХрд╛ рдЬрд╡рд╛рдм рд╣реИред рдпрджрд┐ рдпреЗ рд╕рдм рдХреНрд╖реЗрддреНрд░ рдореЗрдВ рдЪреАрди рдХреЗ рдкреНрд░рднреБрддреНрд╡ рдХреЛ рд╕рдВрддреБрд▓рд┐рдд рдХрд░рдиреЗ рдХреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рд╡рд┐рднрд┐рдиреНрди рддрд╛рдХрддреЛрдВ рдХреА рднрд╡рд┐рд╖реНрдп рдореЗрдВ рдмрдирдиреЗ рд╡рд╛рд▓реА рд╕рд╣рдорддрд┐ рдХрд╛ рд╕рдВрдХреЗрдд рд╣реИ, рддреЛ рдпрд╣ рдЙрдкрд╛рдп рдорд╣рддреНрд╡рдкреВрд░реНрдг рднрд▓реЗ рд╣реА рд╣реЛ, рд▓реЗрдХрд┐рди рдПрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдФрд░ рдпреВрд░реЛрдк рдореЗрдВ рдлреИрд▓реЗ рдЪреАрди рдХреЗ рдкреНрд░реЛрдЬреЗрдХреНрдЯ рдХреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рдирд╛рдХрд╛рдлреА рд╣реИред

рдзрд░рддреА рдХреА рд╕рддрд╣ рдХреЗ 35 рдкреНрд░рддрд┐рд╢рдд рднреВрднрд╛рдЧ рдХреЛ рдХрд╡рд░ рдХрд░рдиреЗ рд╡рд╛рд▓рд╛ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ 90 рд╕реЗ рдЬреНрдпрд╛рджрд╛ рджреЗрд╢реЛрдВ рдореЗрдВ рд░рд╣рдиреЗ рд╡рд╛рд▓реЗ 5 рдмрд┐рд▓рд┐рдпрди рдмрд╛рд╢рд┐рдВрджреЛрдВ рдХрд╛ рдШрд░ рд╣реИ, рдЬреЛ рд╡реИрд╢реНрд╡рд┐рдХ рдЬреАрдбреАрдкреА рдХреЗ 65 рдкреНрд░рддрд┐рд╢рдд рдХреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рдЙрддреНрддрд░рджрд╛рдпреА рд╣реИрдВред рд╕рд╣рд╕реНрддреНрд░рд╛рдмреНрджрд┐ рднрд░ рд╕реЗ рдлрддрд╣, рд╡реНрдпрд╛рдкрд╛рд░ рдФрд░ рдкреНрд░рд╡рд╛рд╕рди рдиреЗ рдПрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдФрд░ рдпреВрд░реЛрдк рдХреЛ рдореВрд▓рднреВрдд рд░реВрдк рд╕реЗ рдмрд╛рдВрдз рд░рдЦрд╛ рд╣реИ тАФ рдЗрд╕ рд╡рд┐рд╢рд╛рд▓ рднреВрднрд╛рдЧ рдореЗрдВ рдлреИрд▓реА рдорд╣рд╛рди рд╕рднреНрдпрддрд╛рдУрдВ рдХрд╛ рдЙрддрд╛рд░-рдЪрдврд╝рд╛рд╡ рдЕрдирдЧрд┐рдирдд рд░рд╛рдЬрдиреАрддрд┐рдХ рдФрд░ рдЖрд░реНрдерд┐рдХ рдЧрддрд┐рд╢реАрд▓рддрд╛рдУрдВ рдХрд╛ рдкрд░рд┐рдгрд╛рдо рд╣реИред

рдЕрднреА рд╣рд╛рд▓ рддрдХ, рдРрддрд┐рд╣рд╛рд╕рд┐рдХ рд╕рдВрджрд░реНрдн рдореЗрдВ, рдпрд╣ рд╕рдм рдирд┐рд░реНрдмрд╛рдж рд░реВрдк рд╕реЗ рдЬрд╛рд░реА рдерд╛ред рдпреВрд░реЛрдк рдХреА рдФрджреНрдпреЛрдЧрд┐рдХ рдХреНрд░рд╛рдВрддрд┐ рдФрд░ рдЙрд╕рдХреЗ рдмрд╛рдж рдПрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдФрд░ рдЕрдлреНрд░реАрдХрд╛ рдореЗрдВ рдЙрдкрдирд┐рд╡реЗрд╢рд╡рд╛рдж рдиреЗ тАШрдкрд╢реНрдЪрд┐рдо рдореЗрдВтАЩ рдЖрд░реНрдерд┐рдХ рдФрд░ рд╕реИрдиреНрдп рддрд╛рдХрдд рдПрдХрддреНрд░ рдХрд░рддреЗ рд╣реБрдП рдХреНрд╖реЗрддреНрд░ рдореЗрдВ рдПрдХ рдРрд╕реА рдХреГрддреНрд░рд┐рдо рджрд░рд╛рд░ рдЙрддреНрдкрдиреНрди рдХрд░ рджреА рдЬрд┐рд╕рдХрд╛ рдХреЛрдИ рднреМрдЧреЛрд▓рд┐рдХ рд╡рдЬреВрдж рдирд╣реАрдВ рдерд╛ред рдпрд╣ рд╕рдореБрджрд╛рдп рджреВрд╕рд░реЗ рд╡рд┐рд╢реНрд╡ рдпреБрджреНрдз рдХрд╛ рд╡рд┐рдЬреЗрддрд╛ рдмрдирдХрд░ рдЙрднрд░рд╛, рдЬрд┐рд╕рдиреЗ рдХреЗрд╡рд▓ рд╕рддреНрддрд╛ рдХреЗ рдЗрди рдврд╛рдВрдЪреЛрдВ рдФрд░ рдХреНрд╖реЗрддреНрд░реЛрдВ рдХреЛ рд╕рдВрд╕реНрдерд╛рдЧрдд рд░реВрдк рдкреНрд░рджрд╛рди рдХрд░ рджрд┐рдпрд╛ред


рдПрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдХрд╛ рд╕рдордХрд╛рд▓реАрди рдЖрд░реНрдерд┐рдХ рдЙрддреНрдХрд░реНрд╖ рдФрд░ рдЙрд╕рдХреЗ рдЕрдкрдиреЗ рд╕рдореБрджрд╛рдпреЛрдВ рддрдерд╛ рдмрд╛рдЬрд╛рд░реЛрдВ рдХрд╛ рдПрдХреАрдХрд░рдг рддреЗрдЬреА рд╕реЗ рдЗрд╕ рдпрдерд╛рд╕реНрдерд┐рддрд┐ рдХреЛ рддрд┐рддрд░-рдмрд┐рддрд░ рдХрд░ рд░рд╣рд╛ рд╣реИред рдореМрдЬреВрджрд╛ рджреМрд░ рдореЗрдВ рдПрдХ рдмрд╛рд░ рдлрд┐рд░ рд╕реЗ рдкреВрд░реЗ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдореЗрдВ рд▓реЛрдЧреЛрдВ, рд╡рд╕реНрддреБрдУрдВ, рдирд╡рд╛рдЪрд╛рд░ рдФрд░ рд╡рд┐рддреНрдд рдХрд╛ рдкреНрд░рд╡рд╛рд╣ рдЕрдкреЗрдХреНрд╖рд╛рдХреГрдд рдореБрдХреНрдд рд░реВрдк рд╕реЗ рд╣реЛ рд░рд╣рд╛ рд╣реИред рд▓реЗрдХрд┐рди рдЗрд╕ рд╕реБрдкрд░ рдХреЙрдиреНрдЯрд┐рдиреЗрдВрдЯ рдХрд╛ рдирдП рд╕рд┐рд░реЗ рд╕реЗ рдЙрджрдп рдЯрдХрд░рд╛рд╡реЛрдВ рд╕реЗ рдЕрдЫреВрддрд╛ рдирд╣реАрдВ рд╣реИред рдпреЗ рдирдИ рдПрдХреАрдХреГрдд рднреВ-рдЖрд░реНрдерд┐рдХ рддрд╛рдХрддреЗрдВ рдирдП рд░рд╛рдЬрдиреАрддрд┐рдХ рддрдирд╛рд╡ рдЕрдкрдиреЗ рд╕рд╛рде рд▓реЗрдХрд░ рдЖрдИрдВ рд╣реИрдВред


рдЬрд┐рд╕ рддрд░рд╣ рдЗрддрд┐рд╣рд╛рд╕ рдЦреБрдж рдХреЛ рджреЛрд╣рд░рд╛ рд░рд╣рд╛ рд╣реИ рдФрд░ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдПрдХрдЬреБрдЯ рд╣реЛ рд░рд╣рд╛ рд╣реИ, рдРрд╕реЗ рдореЗрдВ рдирдИ рд╡рд┐рд╢реНрд╡ рд╡реНрдпрд╡рд╕реНрдерд╛ рдХреА рд░реВрдкрд░реЗрдЦрд╛ рдЗрд╕ рдЖрдзрд╛рд░ рдкрд░ рдкрд░рд┐рднрд╛рд╖рд┐рдд рд╣реЛрдЧреА рдХрд┐ рдЗрд╕рдХрд╛ рдкреНрд░рдмрдВрдзрди рдХреМрди рдХрд░реЗрдЧрд╛ рдФрд░ рдЗрд╕рдХрд╛ рдкреНрд░рдмрдВрдзрди рдХрд┐рд╕ рддрд░рд╣ рд╣реЛрдЧрд╛ред рдЗрд╕реА рд╕реБрдкрд░ рдХреЙрдиреНрдЯрд┐рдиреЗрдВрдЯ рдореЗрдВ рд▓реЛрдХрддрдВрддреНрд░, рдореБрдХреНрдд рдмрд╛рдЬрд╛рд░реЛрдВ рдФрд░ рд╡реИрд╢реНрд╡рд┐рдХ рд╕реБрд░рдХреНрд╖рд╛ рдкреНрд░рдмрдВрдзреЛрдВ рдХрд╛ рднрд╡рд┐рд╖реНрдп рддрдп рд╣реЛрдЧрд╛ рдФрд░ рдЗрд╕ рдкрд░рд┐рджреГрд╢реНрдп рдореЗрдВ рддреАрди рдкреНрд░рдореБрдЦ рдХрд╛рд░рдХ рдЖрдХрд╛рд░ рд▓реЗ рд░рд╣реЗ рд╣реИрдВред

рдкрд╣рд▓рд╛, рд░реЙрдмрд░реНрдЯ рдХреЗрдкрд▓рд╛рди рдХрд╛ рдпрд╣ рдХрдерди рдЙрджреНрдзреГрдд рдХрд░рдирд╛ рд╣реЛрдЧрд╛ рдХрд┐ рдпрд╣ рднреВрдЧреЛрд▓ рдХрд╛ рдмрджрд▓рд╛ рд╣реИред рд╣рд╛рд▓рд╛рдВрдХрд┐ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдХрд╛ рдПрдХреАрдХрд░рдг рд╕реНрд╡рд╛рднрд╛рд╡рд┐рдХ рд╣реИ, рд▓реЗрдХрд┐рди рдЙрд╕рдХрд╛ рд╡рд░реНрддрдорд╛рди тАШрдЕрд╡рддрд╛рд░тАЩ рдирд┐рд╢реНрдЪрд┐рдд рд░реВрдк рд╕реЗ рдЪреАрдиреА рд╣реИред рдпреВрд░реЛрдк рдФрд░ рдПрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдХреЗ рдмреАрдЪ рдХреА рджрд░рд╛рд░ рдХреЛ рдХреГрддреНрд░рд┐рдо, рдЖрдзреБрдирд┐рдХ рдФрд░ тАЬрдкрд╢реНрдЪрд┐рдотАЭ рджреНрд╡рд╛рд░рд╛ рдмрдирд╛рдИ рдЧрдИ рдорд╛рдирдиреЗ рдХреЗ рдмрд╛рдж рдЪреАрди рдиреЗ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдХреЛ рд╕рдордЭрдиреЗ, рдкрд░рд┐рднрд╛рд╖рд┐рдд рдХрд░рдиреЗ рдФрд░ рдлрд┐рд░ рдЙрд╕рдХрд╛ рдкреНрд░рдмрдВрдзрди рдХрд░рдиреЗ рдЬреИрд╕реЗ рдРрд╕реЗ рдХрджрдо рдЙрдард╛рдП, рдЬрд┐рдиреНрд╣реЗрдВ рдХрд░рдиреЗ рдХрд╛ рдЙрддреНрд╕рд╛рд╣ рдХрд┐рд╕реА рдЕрдиреНрдп рддрд╛рдХрдд рдиреЗ рдирд╣реАрдВ рджрд┐рдЦрд╛рдпрд╛ред

рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛рдИ рд╕реБрдкрд░ рдХреЙрдиреНрдЯрд┐рдиреЗрдВрдЯ рдХрд╛ рд╡рд┐рдЪрд╛рд░ рдЕрдкрдиреЗ рдЖрдк рдореЗрдВ рдирдпрд╛ рдирд╣реАрдВ рд╣реИ: 1904 рдореЗрдВ, рд╣реЗрд▓реНрдлреЛрд░реНрдб рдореЗрдХрд┐рдВрдбрд░ рдиреЗ рдЕрдиреБрдорд╛рди рд╡реНрдпрдХреНрдд рдХрд┐рдпрд╛ рдерд╛ рдХрд┐ рдкрд╢реНрдЪрд┐рдореА рдиреМрд╕реИрдирд┐рдХ рд╢реНрд░реЗрд╖реНрдарддрд╛ рдХрд╛ рдпреБрдЧ рддрд╛рдХрдд рдХрд╛рдпрдо рдХрд░рдиреЗ рдХреА рд░рд╛рд╣ рддреИрдпрд╛рд░ рдХрд░реЗрдЧрд╛, рдЬрд┐рд╕рдореЗрдВ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ тАФ тАЬрдореБрдЦреНрдп рдХреЗрдВрджреНрд░тАЭ тАФ рд╡рд┐рд╢реНрд╡ рд╡рд░реНрдЪрд╕реНрд╡ рдХрд╛ рдЖрдзрд╛рд░ рд╣реЛрдЧрд╛ред

рдмреНрд░рд┐рдЯрд┐рд╢, рдЕрдореЗрд░рд┐рдХреА, рдЬрд░реНрдорди рдФрд░ рд░реВрд╕реА рд░рдгрдиреАрддрд┐рдХрд╛рд░ рд▓рдореНрдмреЗ рдЕрд░реНрд╕реЗ рд╕реЗ рдЗрд╕ рд╡рд┐рдЪрд╛рд░ рджреНрд╡рд╛рд░рд╛ рдкреНрд░рднрд╛рд╡рд┐рдд рд░рд╣реЗ рд╣реИрдВред рдЬреНрдмрд┐рдЧрдиреАрд╡ рдмреНрд░реЗрдЬрдЬрд┐рдВрд╕реНрдХреА рдиреЗ рд▓рд┐рдЦрд╛ рдХрд┐ рд╕реЛрд╡рд┐рдпрдд рд╕рдВрдШ рдХреЛ рдирд┐рдпрдВрддреНрд░рд┐рдд рдХрд░рдиреЗ рдХрд╛ рдЖрдзрд╛рд░ тАЬрдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдХреА рдмрд┐рд╕рд╛рдд рдкрд░тАЭ рдЕрдореЗрд░рд┐рдХреА рдкреНрд░рднрд╛рд╡ рдХрд╛ рд╡рд┐рд╕реНрддрд╛рд░ рдХрд░рдирд╛ рдерд╛ред рдЬрдмрдХрд┐ рд░реВрд╕реА рджрд╛рд░реНрд╢рдирд┐рдХ рдЕрд▓реЗрдХреНрд╕рд╛рдВрджреНрд░ рджреБрдЧрд┐рди рдХрд╛ рд╡рд┐рдЪрд╛рд░ рдерд╛ рдХрд┐ рд░реВрд╕ рдХреЗ рдиреЗрддреГрддреНрд╡ рд╡рд╛рд▓рд╛ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдиреЗрдЯреЛ рдХреА тАЬрдЕрдЯрд▓рд╛рдВрдЯрд┐рдХрд╡рд╛рджтАЭ рдХреА рд╕рд╛рдЬрд┐рд╢ рдХреЛ рдкреНрд░рднрд╛рд╡рд╢рд╛рд▓реА рдврдВрдЧ рд╕реЗ рдирд╛рдХрд╛рдо рдХрд░ рджреЗрдЧрд╛ред рдкреНрд░рддреНрдпреЗрдХ рдорд╛рдорд▓реЗ рдореЗрдВ, рд╡рд┐рд╖рдп рд╕реНрдкрд╖реНрдЯ рдерд╛: рднреВрдорд┐ рдЖрдзрд╛рд░рд┐рдд рд╕реИрдиреНрдп рдЖрдкреВрд░реНрддрд┐ рд╢реНрд░реГрдВрдЦрд▓рд╛рдУрдВ рдХреЗ рдорд╛рдзреНрдпрдо рд╕реЗ рдкреНрд░рддрд┐рд╕реНрдкрд░реНрдзреА рддрд╛рдХрддреЛрдВ рдХреЛ рд╕рдВрддреБрд▓рд┐рдд рдХрд░рдирд╛ред

рдЪреАрди рдХреА рдпреЛрдЬрдирд╛ рдЕрд▓рдЧ рд╣реИ тАФ рднреВрд░рд╛рдЬрдиреАрддрд┐рдХ рдмреНрд▓реЙрдХреНрд╕ рдХреА рдмрдЬрд╛рдП рд╕реБрд╡рд┐рдзрд╛ рдкрд░ рдЖрдзрд╛рд░рд┐рдд рдЧрдардмрдВрдзрдиреЛрдВ рджреНрд╡рд╛рд░рд╛ рдкрд░рд┐рднрд╛рд╖рд┐рдд рдкрд░рд╕реНрдкрд░ рдирд┐рд░реНрднрд░ рд╡реИрд╢реНрд╡рд┐рдХ рдЕрд░реНрдерд╡реНрдпрд╡рд╕реНрдерд╛ рдореЗрдВ, рдЪреАрди рдХрд╛ рд╡рд┐рд╕реНрддрд╛рд░ рдКрд░реНрдЬрд╛ рдХреА рдЖрдкреВрддрд┐, рдХрдЪреНрдЪреЗ рдорд╛рд▓ рдФрд░ рдмрд╛рдЬрд╛рд░ рдХреА рддрд▓рд╛рд╢ рдореЗрдВ рдорд▓реНрдЯреА рдбреЙрд▓рд░ рд╡рд╛рд▓реА рднреВрд░рд╛рдЬрдиреАрддрд┐рдХ рдкреНрд░реЗрд░рдгрд╛ рд╕реЗ рдкрд░рд┐рднрд╛рд╖рд┐рдд рд╣реИред


рдЪреАрди рдХреА рдкрд╕рдВрдж рдмреЗрд▓реНрдЯ рдПрдВрдб рд░реЛрдб тАЛрдЗрдирд┐рд╢рд┐рдПрдЯрд┐рд╡ рд╣реИ, рдЬрд┐рд╕рд╕реЗ рдХрдиреЗрдХреНрдЯреАрд╡рд┐тАЛрдЯреА рдкреНрд░реЛрдЬреЗрдХреНрдЯреНрд╕ рдХрд╛ рд╡рд┐рд╢рд╛рд▓ рдиреЗрдЯрд╡рд░реНрдХ рддреИрдпрд╛рд░ рд╣реЛ рд░рд╣рд╛ рд╣реИтАФрдЙрдирдореЗрдВ рд╕реЗ рдкреНрд░рддреНрдпреЗрдХ рдХреА рдЗрд╕ рд╕реБрдкрд░ рдХреЙрдиреНрдЯрд┐рдиреЗрдВрдЯ рдХреЗ рднреВрдЧреЛрд▓ рдореЗрдВ рдЪреАрди рдХреА рдЕрд░реНрдерд╡реНрдпрд╡рд╕реНрдерд╛ рдкрд░ рдЕрдВрддрд░реНрдирд┐рд╣рд┐рдд рдирд┐рд░реНрднрд░рддрд╛ рд╣реИред


рдЪреАрди рдХреА рдкреНрд░реЗрд░рдгрд╛ рдХрд╛ рдЖрдзрд╛рд░ рд╡рд┐рдЪрд╛рд░рдзрд╛рд░рд╛ рдирд╣реАрдВ, рдмрд▓реНрдХрд┐ рджреЛрдмрд╛рд░рд╛ рдкреНрд░рдЪрд▓рд┐рдд рд╣реЛрдиреЗ рддрдерд╛ рд╡рд┐рд╢реНрд╡ рдореЗрдВ рд╕рд╛рдВрд╕реНрдХреГрддрд┐рдХ, рдЖрд░реНрдерд┐рдХ рдФрд░ рд╕реИрдиреНрдп рдХреЗрдВрджреНрд░ рд╣реЛрдиреЗ рдХреА рдЕрдкрдиреА рдРрддрд┐рд╣рд╛рд╕рд┐рдХ рд╕реНрдерд┐рддрд┐ рдХрд╛ рд╡рд┐рд╕реНрддрд╛рд░ рдХрд░рдиреЗ рдХреА рдЗрдЪреНрдЫрд╛ рд╣реИред рдЪреАрди рдХреЗ рдЖрд░реНрдерд┐рдХ рдорд╣рддреНрд╡ рдХреЗ рд╕рд╛рде рд╣реА рд╕рд╛рде рдпрд╣ рдЕрднрд┐рдпрд╛рди рд╕рд╛рдзрд╛рд░рдг рд░реВрдк рд╕реЗ рд╕рдВрддреБрд▓рди рдмрдирд╛рдиреЗ рд╡рд╛рд▓реА рд░рдгрдиреАрддрд┐рдпреЛрдВ рдХреЗ рд╕реНрдерд╛рди рдкрд░ рдЕрдкрдиреЗ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛рдИ рд╡рд┐рдЬрди рдХреЛ рдорд╣рддреНрд╡рдкреВрд░реНрдг рд░реВрдк рд╕реЗ рдФрд░ рдЬреНрдпрд╛рджрд╛ рдкреНрд░рдмрд▓, рджреВрд░рджрд░реНрд╢реА рддрдерд╛ рд╕реНрдерд╛рдпреА рдмрдирд╛рддрд╛ рд╣реИред

рдРрд╕реЗ рдореЗрдВ рдХреЛрдИ рд╣реИрд░рд╛рдиреА рдирд╣реАрдВ рдХрд┐ рдмреАрдЖрд░рдЖрдИ рдЙрдк-рдХреНрд╖реЗрддреНрд░реЛрдВ рдХреЗ рднреВрднрд╛рдЧ рдХрд╛ рдорд╣рддреНрд╡ рдХрдо рдХрд░рддрд╛ рд╣реИ, рдЗрд╕ рдкреНрд░рдХрд╛рд░ рд╕реНрдерд╛рдкрд┐рдд рд╕рддреНрддрд╛ рд╕рдВрддреБрд▓рдиреЛрдВ рдХреЛ рдЕрд╕реНрдерд┐рд░ рдХрд░рддрд╛ рд╣реИред рдорд┐рд╕рд╛рд▓ рдХреЗ рддреМрд░ рдкрд░ рднрд╛рд░рдд рдФрд░ рдпреВрд░реЛрдкреАрдп рд╕рдВрдШ (рдИрдпреВ) рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдХреА рд░рд╛рдЬрдиреАрддрд┐рдХ, рдЖрд░реНрдерд┐рдХ рдФрд░ рд╕реБрд░рдХреНрд╖рд╛ рд╡рд╛рд░реНрддрд╛рдУрдВ рдореЗрдВ рдЪреАрди рдХреЗ рдзреАрд░реЗ-рдзреАрд░реЗ рдмрдврд╝рддреЗ рдкреНрд░рднрд╛рд╡ рдкрд░ рдХрд╛рдмреВ рдкрд╛рдиреЗ рдХреА рдЬрджреНрджреЛрдЬрд╣рдж рдХрд░ рд░рд╣реЗ рд╣реИрдВред

тАЬрдореБрдХреНрдд рдФрд░ рдЦреБрд▓рд╛тАЭ рд╣рд┐рдВрдж-рдкреНрд░рд╢рд╛рдВрдд рд╡рд┐рдЬрди рдФрд░ рдХреНрд╡рд╛рдбреНрд░реАрд▓реИрдЯрд░рд▓ рдЗрдирд┐рд╢рд┐рдПрдЯрд┐рд╡ рдЬреИрд╕реЗ рдирд╡рд╡рд┐рдХрд╕рд┐рдд рдордВрдЪ рд╕рд╛рдореБрджреНрд░рд┐рдХ рдореЛрд░реНрдЪреЗ рдкрд░ рдЪреАрди рдХреЗ рдЙрджрдп рдХреЛ рд╕рдВрддреБрд▓рд┐рдд рдмрдирд╛рдиреЗ рдХреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рдкреНрд░рдпрд╛рд╕ рдХрд░ рд░рд╣реЗ рд╣реИрдВред рдорд╣рд╛рд╕рд╛рдЧрд░, рд╣рд╛рд▓рд╛рдВрдХрд┐ рдЪреАрди рдХрд╛ рдорд╣рдЬ рдПрдХ рдордВрдЪ рднрд░ рд╣реИ рдФрд░ рдРрд╕реЗ рдореЗрдВ рд╡рд┐рд╢реБрджреНрдз рд░реВрдк рд╕реЗ рд╕рд╛рдореБрджреНрд░рд┐рдХ рдЬрд╡рд╛рдм рдирд╛рдХрд╛рдлреА рд╣реИред

рдЪреАрди рдмреЗрд╣рддрд░реАрди рддрд░реАрдХреЗ рд╕реЗ рдЗрд╕ рдкреНрд░реЛрдЬреЗрдХреНрдЯ: рдмреБрдирд┐рдпрд╛рджреА рдврд╛рдВрдЪреЗ рдХрд╛ рдирд┐рд░реНрдорд╛рдг рдХрд░рдиреЗ рдФрд░ рд╡реНрдпрд╛рдкрд╛рд░ рдХреЛ рд╕реБрдЧрдо рдмрдирд╛рдиреЗ рддрдерд╛ рд╡реИрд╢реНрд╡рд┐рдХ рд╕рдВрд╕реНрдерд╛рдУрдВ рдХрд╛ рд╡рд┐рдХрд▓реНрдк рддреИрдпрд╛рд░ рдХрд░рдиреЗ рдореЗрдВ рдЕрдирд╡рд░рдд рд░реВрдк рд╕реЗ рдЬреБрдЯрд╛ рд╣реБрдЖ рд╣реИред рдЪреАрди рд▓реБрдХреЗ-рдЫрд┐рдкреЗ рдврдВрдЧ рд╕реЗ рдЕрдкрдиреЗ рд░рд╛рдЬрдиреАрддрд┐рдХ рдореЙрдбрд▓: тАЬрдЪреАрдиреА рд╡рд┐рд╢реЗрд╖рддрд╛рдУрдВ рд╕реЗ рдпреБрдХреНрдд рдкреВрдВрдЬреАрд╡рд╛рджтАЭ тАФ рд╕рд░рдХрд╛рд░реА рдкреВрдВрдЬреАрд╡рд╛рдж рдФрд░ рдЕрдзрд┐рдирд╛рдпрдХрд╡рд╛рдж рдХреЗ рдЕрдиреЛрдЦреЗ рдорд┐рд╢реНрд░рдг рдХрд╛ рдирд┐рд░реНрдпрд╛рдд рднреА рдХрд░ рд░рд╣рд╛ рд╣реИред рдЬрдм рддрдХ рдЙрджрд╛рд░ рд▓реЛрдХрддрдВрддреНрд░ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдореЗрдВ тАФ рдПрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдФрд░ рдЕрдлреНрд░реАрдХрд╛ рдореЗрдВ рдмреБрдирд┐рдпрд╛рджреА рдврд╛рдВрдЪреЗ рдФрд░ рд╢рд╛рд╕рди рдХреА рдЬрд░реВрд░рддреЗ рдкреНрд░рднрд╛рд╡реА рдврдВрдЧ рд╕реЗ рдкреВрд░реА рдХрд░рдиреЗ рд╡рд╛рд▓реЗ тАЛрд╡рд┐рдХрд▓реНрдк рдХреЛ рдкреНрд░рд╕реНрддреБрдд рдирд╣реАрдВ рдХрд░рддреЗ, рддрдм рддрдХ рдЪреАрди рдХрд╛ рдкреНрд░рд╕реНрддрд╛рд╡ рдХрд╛рдордпрд╛рдм рд╣реЛрддрд╛ рд░рд╣реЗрдЧрд╛ред

рдпрд╣реАрдВ рджреВрд╕рд░реЗ рдХрд╛рд░рдХ рдХреА рдмрд╛рд░реА рдЖрддреА рд╣реИ: рд▓реЛрдХрддрдВрддреНрд░ рдХрд╛ рдмрджрд▓рд╛ред рдЪрд╛рд╣реЗ рдЕрдореЗрд░рд┐рдХрд╛ рд╣реЛ рдпрд╛ рдпреВрд░реЛрдкреАрдп рд╕рдВрдШ рдпрд╛ рднрд╛рд░рдд, рд▓реЛрдХрддрдВрддреНрд░реЛрдВ рдХрд╛ рдкрд╣рд▓реЗ рд╕реЗ рдХрд╣реАрдВ рдЬреНрдпрд╛рджрд╛ рдзреНрд░реБрд╡реАрдХрд░рдг рд╣реЛ рдЪреБрдХрд╛ рд╣реИред рдж рдкреНрдпреВ рдЧреНрд▓реЛрдмрд▓ рдПрдЯреАрдЯреНрдпреВрдб рд╕рд░реНрд╡реЗ рд▓рдЧрд╛рддрд╛рд░ рдпрд╣ рджрд░реНрдЬ рдХрд░ рд░рд╣рд╛ рд╣реИ рдХрд┐ рд▓реЛрдХрддрд╛рдВрддреНрд░рд┐рдХ рд╕рд░рдХрд╛рд░реЛрдВ рдХрд╛ рд╡рд┐рд╢реНрд╡рд╛рд╕ рдЕрдм рддрдХ рдХреЗ рд╕рдмрд╕реЗ рдирд┐рдЪрд▓реЗ рд╕реНрддрд░ рддрдХ рдкрд╣реБрдВрдЪ рдЪреБрдХрд╛ рд╣реИред рдРрд╕рд╛ рд▓рдЧрддрд╛ рд╣реИ рдХрд┐ рдкрд╣рд▓реА рдмрд╛рд░ рдЙрджрд╛рд░рд╡рд╛рджреА рд▓реЛрдХрддрдВрддреНрд░ рдЗрддрдиреЗ рдЬрдЯрд┐рд▓ рд╣рд╛рд▓рд╛рдд рдореЗрдВ рдкрд╣реБрдВрдЪ рдЪреБрдХреЗ рд╣реИрдВ рдХрд┐ рдЙрдирдХреЗ рдкрд╛рд╕ рд░рдгрдиреАрддрд┐рдХ рдпреЛрдЬрдирд╛рдПрдВ рдмрдирд╛рдиреЗ рдХреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рдЬреНрдпрд╛рджрд╛ рдКрд░реНрдЬрд╛ рд╣реА рдирд╣реАрдВ рдмрдЪрддреАред рдРрд╕реЗ рд╕рдордп рдореЗрдВ рдЬрд╣рд╛рдВ рдПрдХ рдУрд░ рдЪреАрди рдХрд╛ рджрд╕ рд╕рд╛рд▓ рдХрд╛ рдШрдЯрдирд╛рдХреНрд░рдо рд╣реИ, рд╡рд╣реАрдВ рд▓реЛрдХрддрдВрддреНрд░ рдЕрдкрдиреЗ рдЕрдЧрд▓реЗ рдЪреБрдирд╛рд╡реЛрдВ рдХреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рд╕рдВрдШрд░реНрд╖ рдХрд░ рд░рд╣реЗ рд╣реИрдВред

рдФрд░ рдЕрдВрддрд┐рдо рдХрд╛рд░рдХ, рдЬрдирд╕рд╛рдВрдЦреНрдпрдХреА рд╣реИ, рдЬреЛ рд╕рдореВрдЪреЗ рдХреНрд╖реЗрддреНрд░, рдЦрд╛рд╕рддреМрд░ рдкрд░ рдЪреАрди рдХреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рдПрдХ рджреЛрдзрд╛рд░реА рддрд▓рд╡рд╛рд░ рдХреА рддрд░рд╣ рд╣реИред рдмрд╣реБрдд рд╕реЗ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛рдИ рджреЗрд╢реЛрдВ рдореЗрдВ, рдмреАрдЖрд░рдЯреА рдХреЗ рдЖрд░реНрдерд┐рдХ рд▓рд╛рдн рдЬрд╛рд╣рд┐рд░ рд╣реИрдВред рд╣рд╛рд▓рд╛рдВрдХрд┐ рдРрд╕реЗ рджреМрд░ рдореЗрдВ, рдЬрдм рд░рд╛рд╖реНрдЯреНрд░рд╡рд╛рдж рд░рд╛рдЬрдиреАрддрд┐ рдХрд╛ рдореВрдб рдкрд░рд┐рднрд╛рд╖рд┐рдд рдХрд░ рд░рд╣рд╛ рд╣реЛ, рдРрд╕реЗ рдореЗрдВ рдЪреАрди рдХреА рдореМрдЬреВрджрдЧреА рдЕрдкреНрд░рд┐рдп рд╣реЛ рд╕рдХрддреА рд╣реИред рдЪреАрди рдХрд╛ рд╢реНрд░рдо рдирд┐рд░реНрдпрд╛рдд рдпреБрд╡рд╛ рдЖрдмрд╛рджреА рд╡рд╛рд▓реЗ рдореЗрдЬрдмрд╛рди рджреЗрд╢реЛрдВ рдореЗрдВ рддрдирд╛рд╡ рдЙрддреНрдкрдиреНрди рдХрд░ рд░рд╣рд╛ рд╣реИ, рдЬреЛ рдЕрдм рд░реЛрдЬрдЧрд╛рд░ рдХреЗ рдЕрд╡рд╕рд░реЛрдВ рдХреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рдкреНрд░рддрд┐рд╕реНрдкрд░реНрдзрд╛ рдХрд░ рд░рд╣реЗ рд╣реИрдВред рдЗрд╕ рдмрд╛рдд рдХрд╛ рдЦрддрд░рд╛ рд╣реИ рдХрд┐ рдмреАрдЖрд░рдЯреА рдЕрд╕реНрдерд┐рд░ рджреЗрд╢реЛрдВ рдореЗрдВ рдХреЗрд╡рд▓ рдЙрдЧреНрд░ рдФрд░ рдХрдЯреНрдЯрд░ рд╕рдВрдЧрдардиреЛрдВ рдХреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рдмреБрдирд┐рдпрд╛рджреА рд╕реБрд╡рд┐рдзрд╛рдУрдВ рдХреЗ рдиреЗрдЯрд╡рд░реНрдХ рддреИрдпрд╛рд░ рдХрд░реЗрдЧрд╛ред

рдШрд░реЗрд▓реВ рд╕реНрддрд░ рдкрд░, рдЬрдирд╕рд╛рдВрдЦреНрдпрдХреАрдп рджрдмрд╛рд╡ рдЪреАрди рдХреЛ рдЕрдкреЗрдХреНрд╖рд╛рдПрдВ рдкреВрд░реА рдХрд░рдиреЗ рдХреА рдЙрд╕рдХреА рдпреЛрдЧреНрдпрддрд╛ рдкрд░ рдкреБрдирд░реНрд╡рд┐рдЪрд╛рд░ рдХрд░рдиреЗ рдХреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рдордЬреВрдмрд░ рдХрд░ рд╕рдХрддреЗ рд╣реИрдВред рдЬреИрд╕реЗ-рдЬреИрд╕реЗ рдЪреАрди рдХреА рдпреБрд╡рд╛ рдЖрдмрд╛рджреА рдЖрдорджрдиреА рдХреА рд╕реАрдврд╝реА рдЪрдврд╝реЗрдЧреА, рдЕрдкрдиреА рд╕рд░рдХрд╛рд░ рд╕реЗ рдЙрдирдХреА рдЕрдкреЗрдХреНрд╖рд╛рдПрдВ рдмрдврд╝реЗрдВрдЧреАред рд╕рд╛рде рд╣реА рд╕рд╛рде, рд╢рд╣рд░реА рдХреНрд╖реЗрддреНрд░реЛрдВ рдореЗрдВ рдЕрдХреЗрд▓реЗ рдпреБрд╡рд╛рдУрдВ рдХреА рдЕрдзрд┐рдХрддрд╛ рдФрд░ рдЙрдореНрд░рджрд░рд╛рдЬ рд╣реЛрддреА рдЧрд╛рдВрд╡реЛрдВ рдХреА рдЖрдмрд╛рджреА рдХреЗ рдХрд╛рд░рдг рдЪреАрди рдХреЗ рд╕рдорд╛рдЬ рдореЗрдВ рд╣рд┐рдВрд╕рд╛ рдФрд░ рдЕрд╢рд╛рдВрддрд┐ рдХрд╛ рдЦрддрд░рд╛ рдЙрддреНрдкрдиреНрди рд╣реЛ рдЬрд╛рдПрдЧрд╛ред рдпреЗ рдЬрдирд╕рд╛рдВрдЦреНрдпрдХреАрдп рджрдмрд╛рд╡ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛рдИ рдПрдХреАрдХрд░рдг рдХреЗ рдкреНрд░реЛрдЬреЗрдХреНрдЯ рдХреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рдХреНрдпрд╛ рдкреВрд░реНрд╡рд╛рднрд╛рд╕ рджреЗрдВрдЧреЗ? рдХреНрдпрд╛ рдЪреАрди рдХреЗ рдкрд╛рд╕ рджреБрдирд┐рдпрд╛ рднрд░ рдореЗрдВ рдкреНрд░рднрд╛рд╡ рдХреЛ рдЕрдВрдзрд╛рдзреБрдВрдз рдЦрд░реАрджрдиреЗ рдХреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рд░рд╛рдЬрдиреАрддрд┐рдХ рдкреВрдВрдЬреАрд╡рд╛рдж рдпрд╛ рдкреЙрд▓рд┐рдЯрд┐рдХрд▓ рдХреИрдкрд┐рдЯрд▓ рд╣реЛрдЧреА? рдХреНрдпрд╛ рдЬрдирд╕рд╛рдВрдЦреНрдпрдХреАрдп рдЬрдЯрд┐рд▓рддрд╛рдПрдВ рдЕрдиреНрдп рджреЗрд╢реЛрдВ рдХреЛ рдмреАрдЬрд┐рдВрдЧ рд╕рд░реНрд╡рд╕рдореНрдорддрд┐ рд╕реЗ рдирд┐рдкрдЯрдиреЗ рдХреА рдЬрд▓реНрджреА рд╕реЗ рдХреЛрдИ рд╡реНрдпрд╡рд╕реНрдерд╛ рддреИрдпрд╛рд░ рдХрд░рдиреЗ рдХреА рдЗрдЬрд╛рдЬрдд рджреЗрдВрдЧреА?


рднрд╛рд░рдд рдореЗрдВ, рдпрд╣ рдмрд╛рдд рдЗрд╕рд╕реЗ рдЬреНрдпрд╛рджрд╛ рд╕реНрдкрд╖реНрдЯ рдирд╣реАрдВ рд╣реЛ рд╕рдХрддреА рдХрд┐ рднрд╛рд░рдд рдХрд╛ рд╡рд┐рдХрд╛рд╕ рдХрд╛ рдорд╛рд░реНрдЧ рдЬрдЯрд┐рд▓рддрд╛ рд╕реЗ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рд╕реЗ рдмрдВрдзрд╛ рд╣реИред рднрд╛рд░рдд 21рд╡реАрдВ рд╕рджреА рдХреЛ рдкрд░рд┐рднрд╛рд╖рд┐рдд рдХрд░рдиреЗ рд╡рд╛рд▓реЗ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдФрд░ рд╣рд┐рдВрдж-рдкреНрд░рд╢рд╛рдВрдд рджреЛрдиреЛрдВ рдХреНрд╖реЗрддреНрд░реЛрдВ рдХреЗ рджреЛрд░рд╛рд╣реЗ рдкрд░ рд╣реИред


рднрд╛рд░рдд, рд╣рд╛рд▓рд╛рдВрдХрд┐ рдРрд╕реЗ рджреЗрд╢реЛрдВ рдХреЗ рд╕рдореВрд╣ рдореЗрдВ рд╕реЗ рдПрдХ рд╣реЛрдЧрд╛ рдФрд░ рдЙрдирдХреЗ рд╡рд┐рдЬрди рдХреЗ рдЕрдиреБрд╕рд╛рд░ рдЦреБрдж рдХреЛ рдврд╛рд▓рдиреЗ, рдФрд░ рддреЛ рдФрд░ рдЙрд╕ рд╡рд┐рдЬрди рдХреЛ рдЖрдХрд╛рд░ рджреЗрдиреЗ рдХреА рдЙрд╕рдХреА рдпреЛрдЧреНрдпрддрд╛ рдЖрдиреЗ рд╡рд╛рд▓реЗ рджрд╢рдХреЛрдВ рдореЗрдВ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛рдИ рд╡рд╛рд░реНрддрд╛рдУрдВ рдХреЛ рдкреНрд░рднрд╛рд╡рд┐рдд рдХрд░реЗрдЧреАред

рд░реВрд╕, рдЬреЛ рдЕрдкрдиреА рдЖрд░реНрдерд┐рдХ рдЬрд░реВрд░рддреЛрдВ рдФрд░ рдЕрдореЗрд░рд┐рдХреА рддрд╛рдХрдд рдХреЗ рдкреНрд░рддрд┐ рд╕рд╛рдЭрд╛ рдирдлрд░рдд рдХреЗ рдХрд╛рд░рдг рдЪреАрди рд╕реЗ рдХрдордЬреЛрд░ рд╕реНрдерд┐рддрд┐ рдореЗрдВ рд╣реИ, рдЪреАрди рдХреЗ рдкреНрд░рддрд┐ рдкреНрд░рддрд┐рдХреВрд▓ рд╕рдВрдмрдВрдз рд░рдЦрддрд╛ рд╣реИред рдЗрд╕ рд╡рд╛рд╕реНрддрд╡рд┐рдХ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛рдИ рд╕реБрдкрд░ рдкреЙрд╡рд░ рдХреА рд╣реИрд╕рд┐рдпрдд рдЗрд╕ рд╕рдордп рдЧреМрд░рд╡рд╢рд╛рд▓реА рдкреБрд▓рд┐рд╕рдХрд░реНрдореА тАФ рдпрд╛ рдЬреНрдпрд╛рджрд╛ рдЙрджрд╛рд░рддрд╛ рд╕реЗ рдХрд╣реЗрдВ рддреЛ рдЪреАрдиреА рд╡рд┐рд╕реНрддрд╛рд░рд╡рд╛рдж рдХреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рдЪрддреБрд░ рдЬреЛрдЦрд┐рдо рдкреНрд░рдмрдВрдзрди рд╕рд▓рд╛рд╣рдХрд╛рд░ тАФ рд╕реЗ рдЬреНрдпрд╛рджрд╛ рдирд╣реАрдВ рд╣реИред

рдЬрд┐рди рджреЛ рдЖрд░реНрдерд┐рдХ рд╡рд┐рдЬрдиреЛрдВ рдХреЛ рд╡реЗ рдПрдХреАрдХреГрдд рдХрд░рдирд╛ рдЪрд╛рд╣рддреЗ рд╣реИрдВ рд╡реЗ тАФ рдмреАрдЖрд░рдЖрдИ рдФрд░ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛рдИ рдЖрд░реНрдерд┐рдХ рд╕рдВрдШ рд╣реИрдВ, рдЬреЛ рд╡рд┐рд╡рд┐рдз рддрд░реНрдХреЛрдВ рдХреЗ рдЕрдВрддрд░реНрдЧрдд рдСрдкрд░реЗрдЯ рдХрд░рддреЗ рд╣реИрдВред рдЗрдирдореЗрдВ рд╕реЗ рдкрд╣рд▓рд╛ рдЪреАрди рдХреЛ рд╡реНрдпрд╛рдкрд╛рд░ рдХреЗ рд╡рд╛рд╣рдХ рдХреЗ рд░реВрдк рдореЗрдВ рд╕реНрдерд╛рдкрд┐рдд рдХрд░рдиреЗ рдХреА рдордВрд╢рд╛ рд╕реЗ рдмрд╛рдЬрд╛рд░реЛрдВ рдХреЛ рдирдП рд╕рд┐рд░реЗ рд╕реЗ рд╕реНрдерд╛рдкрд┐рдд рдХрд░рдирд╛ рдЪрд╛рд╣рддрд╛ рд╣реИ, рдЬрдмрдХрд┐ рджреВрд╕рд░рд╛ рд░реВрд╕ рдХреЗ рд╕реАрдорд┐рдд рдЖрд░реНрдерд┐рдХ рдкреНрд░рднрд╛рд╡ рдХрд╛ рд╡рд┐рд╕реНрддрд╛рд░ рдХрд░рдиреЗ рдХреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рдПрдХрд▓ рдмрд╛рдЬрд╛рд░ рдХрд╛ рдирд┐рд░реНрдорд╛рдг рдХрд░рдирд╛ рдЪрд╛рд╣рддрд╛ рд╣реИред рд╕рд╛рде рд╣реА, рд░реВрд╕ рдХреА рдЪрд┐рдВрддрд╛ рдХрд╛ рд╕рдореНрдорд╛рди рдХрд░рддреЗ рд╣реБрдП, рдЪреАрди рдЕрдм рддрдХ рдХреНрд╖реЗрддреНрд░ рдореЗрдВ рдХрдбрд╝реА рд╕реБрд░рдХреНрд╖рд╛ рдкреНрд░рддрд┐рдмрджреНрдзрддрд╛рдУрдВ рдХреЛ рдЯрд╛рд▓рддрд╛ рдЖрдпрд╛ рд╣реИ тАФ рдЬрд┐рд╕рдХрд╛ рджреАрд░реНрдШрдХрд╛рд▓ рддрдХ рдЯрд┐рдХрд╛рдК рд░рд╣ рдкрд╛рдирд╛ рдореБрд╢реНрдХрд┐рд▓ рд╣реИред

рд░реВрд╕ рдХреА рд╕рд╛рдзрд╛рд░рдг рдХреНрд╖реЗрддреНрд░реАрдп рдХреНрд╖рдорддрд╛ рдФрд░ рдЪреАрди рдХреА рдмрд╣реБ-рдорд╣рд╛рджреНрд╡реАрдкреАрдп рдорд╣рддреНрд╡рд╛рдХрд╛рдВрдХреНрд╖рд╛ рдХреЗ рдЕрдВрддрд░ рд╕реЗ рдпрд╣ рдкреНрд░рд╢реНрди рдЙрдарддрд╛ рд╣реИ : рдХреНрдпрд╛ рд╣реЛ рдЕрдЧрд░ рджреЛрдиреЛрдВ рд╕реНрд╡рд╛рдпрддреНрддрддрд╛ рдФрд░ рднреМрддрд┐рдХ рд░реВрдк рд╕реЗ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдХреЗ рджреЛ рдЕрд▓рдЧ рд╡рд┐рдЬрдиреНрд╕ рддрдХ рдкрд╣реБрдВрдЪреЗ? рдпрд╛ рдЙрди рджреЛрдиреЛрдВ рдХреЗ рдмреАрдЪ рдкреНрд░рддрд┐рд╕реНрдкрд░реНрдзрд╛ рдкрд╣рд▓реЗ рд╕реЗ рд╣реА рдЕрд╕реНрдерд┐рд░ рдХреНрд╖реЗрддреНрд░ рдореЗрдВ рдЬрдЯрд┐рд▓ рд╕реБрд░рдХреНрд╖рд╛ рдЧрддрд┐рд╢реАрд▓рддрд╛ рдХреА рд░рдЪрдирд╛ рдХрд░ рджреЗрдВ?


рджреВрд╕рд░реА рдУрд░, рдпреВрд░реЛрдкреАрдп рд╕рдВрдШ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдХреЛ рдореБрд╢реНрдХрд┐рд▓ рдорд╛рди рд░рд╣рд╛ рд╣реИред рдПрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдХреА рд░рд╛рдЬрдиреАрддрд┐рдХ рдЕрд╕реНрдерд┐рд░рддрд╛ рд╕реЗ рдЕрд▓рдЧ-рдерд▓рдЧ, рдпреВрд░реЛрдк рдиреЗ рд╕рддреНрддрд╛ рдХреА рд░рд╛рдЬрдиреАрддрд┐ рдХреЛ рдЫреЛрдбрд╝ рджрд┐рдпрд╛ рд╣реИ рдФрд░ рдЕрдореЗрд░рд┐рдХреА рд╕реБрд░рдХреНрд╖рд╛ рдХреА рдЫрд╛рдпрд╛ рддрд▓реЗ рдмрд╣реБрд╕рдВрд╕реНрдХреГрддрд┐рд╡рд╛рдж рдХрд╛ рдЕрдкрдирд╛ рд╡рд┐рдЬрди рд╡рд┐рдХрд╕рд┐рдд рдХрд░ рд▓рд┐рдпрд╛ рд╣реИред


рд╣рд╛рд▓рд╛рдВрдХрд┐ рдкрд╢реНрдЪрд┐рдо рдПрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдореЗрдВ рдлреВрдЯ рдХреЗ рдХрд╛рд░рдг, рд╢рд░рдгрд╛рд░реНрдерд┐рдпреЛрдВ рдХреА рднреАрдбрд╝ рдкрд╣рд▓реЗ рд╕реЗ рдХрд░реНрдЬ рдореЗрдВ рдбреВрдмреА тАЛрдЕрд░реНрдерд╡реНрдпрд╡рд╕реНрдерд╛рдУрдВ рдореЗрдВ рдЬрд╛ рдкрд╣реБрдВрдЪреА рд╣реИ, рдЬрд┐рд╕рдиреЗ рдпреВрд░реЛрдкреАрдпрдиреЛрдВ рдХреЛ рдорд╣рд╛рджреНрд╡реАрдк рдХреЗ рд╕рд╛рде рдЕрдкрдиреА рдирд┐рдХрдЯрддрд╛ рдпрд╛рдж рджрд┐рд▓рд╛рдиреЗ рдХреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рдмрд╛рдзреНрдп рдХрд░ рджрд┐рдпрд╛ рд╣реИред

рдЕрдм рдпреВрд░реЛрдк рднреАрддрд░ рдФрд░ рдмрд╛рд╣рд░ рд╕реЗ рдЯреВрдЯ рдЪреБрдХрд╛ рд╣реИред рдпрд╣рд╛рдВ рддрдХ рдЙрдореНрд░рджрд░рд╛рдЬ рд╣реЛрддреЗ рдпреВрд░реЛрдкреАрдп рд╕рдорд╛рдЬ рдкреНрд░рддрд┐рдХреНрд░рд┐рдпрд╛рд╡рд╛рджреА рд▓реЛрдХрдкреНрд░рд┐рдпрддрд╛ рдФрд░ рд╕реБрд╕реНрдерд╛рдкрд┐рдд рд░рд╛рдЬрдиреАрддрд┐рдХ рдФрд░ рдЖрд░реНрдерд┐рдХ рд╕рд░реНрд╡рд╕рдореНрдорддрд┐ рдХреЗ рд╡рд┐рдШрдЯрди рд╕реЗ рдЬреВрдЭ рд░рд╣реЗ рд╣реИрдВ, рдЙрдирдХреА рд╕реАрдорд╛рдПрдВ рдмреЗрд▓реНрдЯ рдПрдВрдб рд░реЛрдб рдЗрдирд┐рд╢рд┐рдПрдЯрд┐рд╡ рджреНрд╡рд╛рд░рд╛ рдзреАрд░реЗ-рдзреАрд░реЗ рдирд╖реНрдЯ рд╣реЛ рд░рд╣реА рд╣реИрдВред рдпреВрд░реЛрдкреАрдп рд╕рдВрдШ рдХреЛ рдЕрдм рд╣рд░ рд╣рд╛рд▓ рдореЗрдВ рдХреБрдЫ рдореБрд╢реНрдХрд┐рд▓ рдлреИрд╕рд▓реЗ рд▓реЗрдиреЗ рд╣реЛрдВрдЧреЗ: рдпрд╛ рддреЛ рдЕрдкрдиреА рдПрдЬреЗрдВрд╕реА рдХреЗ рд╕рдВрд░рдХреНрд╖рдг рдФрд░ рд╡рд┐рд╕реНрддрд╛рд░ рдореЗрдВ рдЬреБрдЯрдирд╛ рд╣реЛрдЧрд╛ рдпрд╛ рдПрдХ рд╕рдордп рдкрд░ рдПрдХ рд╣реА рдХрд╛рдо рдХрд░рдирд╛ рд╣реЛрдЧрд╛ред

рдЕрдореЗрд░рд┐рдХрд╛ рдиреЗ, рдЕрдкрдиреА рдУрд░ рд╕реЗ рдкрд┐рдЫрд▓реЗ рдиреМ рджрд╢рдХреЛрдВ рдХреЗ рджреМрд░рд╛рди, рдЗрди рджреЛрдиреЛрдВ рдХреНрд╖реЗрддреНрд░реЛрдВ рдореЗрдВ рдЕрдкрдиреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рд╡рд┐рд╢рд┐рд╖реНрдЯ рд╕реНрдерд╛рди рдмрд░рдХрд░рд╛рд░ рд░рдЦрдиреЗ рдХреЗ рд▓рд┐рдП рд░рдХреНрдд рдФрд░ рдзрди рдмрд╣рд╛рдпрд╛ рд╣реИред рд╣рд╛рд▓рд╛рдВрдХрд┐, рд░реВрд╕ рдФрд░ рдЪреАрди рдХреЛ рд╕рдВрддреБрд▓рд┐рдд рдХрд░рдиреЗ рдХреЗ рдкреНрд░рдпрд╛рд╕ рдФрд░ тАЬрдЖрддрдВрдХрд╡рд╛рдж рдХреЗ рдЦрд┐рд▓рд╛рдл рдпреБрджреНрдзтАЭ рдХрд░рдиреЗ рдореЗрдВ рдЙрд╕рдХреА рддрд╛рдХрдд рдФрд░ рдкреНрд░рднрд╛рд╡ рдиреЗрдЯреЛ, рдХреЗрдВрджреНрд░реАрдп рдХрдорд╛рди рдФрд░ рд╣рд╛рд▓ рдореЗрдВ рдирдП рдирд╛рдо рдкрд╛рдиреЗ рд╡рд╛рд▓реА ‘рд╣рд┐рдВрдж рдкреНрд░рд╢рд╛рдВрдд’рдХрдорд╛рди рдХреЗ рдмреАрдЪ рдмрд┐рдЦрд░ рдХрд░ рд░рд╣ рдЧрдП рд╣реИрдВ, рдЬрд┐рдирдХреА рдЕрдкрдиреА рд░рдгрдиреАрддрд┐рдпрд╛рдВ рдФрд░ рд╡рд┐рд░рд╛рд╕рдд рд╣реИрдВред рдХреНрдпрд╛ рдЕрдореЗрд░рд┐рдХрд╛, рдЕрдм рдЕрдирдкреЗрдХреНрд╖рд┐рдд рд░реВрдк рд╕реЗ рдЖрд░реНрдерд┐рдХ рд░рд╛рд╖реНрдЯреНрд░рд╡рд╛рдж рдХреЗ рд╕рд╛рде рдЦрд┐рд▓рд╡рд╛рдбрд╝ рдХрд░рддреЗ рд╣реБрдП, рдЬрд╡рд╛рдм рджреЗрдиреЗ рдХреА рдЕрдкрдиреА рд╕рдВрд╕реНрдерд╛рдЧрдд рдХреНрд╖рдорддрд╛ рд╕реЗ рдЬреНрдпрд╛рджрд╛ рддреЗрдЬреА рд╕реЗ рд╕рдВрдпреБрдХреНрдд рдФрд░ рдПрдХреАрдХреГрдд рд╣реЛ рд░рд╣реЗ рд╡рд┐рд╢реНрд╡ рдореЗрдВ рдиреЗрддреГрддреНрд╡ рдХрд╛ рджрд╛рд╡рд╛ рдХрд░ рд╕рдХрддрд╛ рд╣реИ?

рдорд╣рддреНрд╡рдкреВрд░реНрдг рд╣реЛрдЧрд╛ рдХрд┐ рд╕рднреА рдФрд░ тАЛрдЦрд╛рд╕рддреМрд░ рдкрд░ рднрд╛рд░рдд рдФрд░ рдЕрдореЗрд░рд┐рдХрд╛, рд╣рд┐рдВрдж-рдкреНрд░рд╢рд╛рдВрдд рд╕реЗ рдкрд░реЗ рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛ рдХреЗ рдХреЗрдВрджреНрд░ рдореЗрдВ рд╡реНрдпрд╡рд╕реНрдерд╛ рдХреА рдХрд▓реНрдкрдирд╛ рдХрд░реЗрдВред рдпрд╣ рдХрд▓реНрдкрдирд╛ рд▓реЛрдХрддрдВрддреНрд░ рдХреЗ рдорд╛рдирджрдВрдб рд╕рдВрдмрдВрдзреА рд╡рд┐рдЪрд╛рд░реЛрдВ рдХреЛ рдирдЬрд░рдВрджрд╛рдЬ рдХрд░рддреЗ рд╣реБрдП, рдпреВрд░реЗрд╢рд┐рдпрд╛рдИ рднреВрд░рд╛рдЬрдиреАрддрд┐ рд╡рд┐рддреНрдд рдФрд░ рдкреНрд░реМрджреНрдпреЛрдЧрд┐рдХреА рдХреЗ рдкреНрд░рд╛рд╡рдзрд╛рдиреЛрдВ, рд╕рдореНрдкрд░реНрдХ рддрдерд╛ рд╡реНрдпрд╛рдкрд╛рд░ рддрдерд╛ рд╡рд┐рд╡рд┐рдз рд░рд╛рдЬрдиреАрддрд┐рдХ рд╡реНрдпрд╡рд╕реНрдерд╛рдУрдВ рдХреЛ рд╕рдорд╛рдпреЛрдЬрд┐рдд рдХрд░рдиреЗ рдХреА рдЗрдЪреНрдЫрд╛ рджреНрд╡рд╛рд░рд╛ рдкрд░рд┐рднрд╛рд╖рд┐рдд рд╣реЛрдЧреАред

рдпреЗ рд▓реЗрдЦрдХ рдХреЗ рдирд┐рдЬреА рд╡рд┐рдЪрд╛рд░ рд╣реИрдВред

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Liberal world must stand up and be counted, or step aside and watch Pax Sinica unfold

Samir Saran

тАЬIndo-PacificтАЭ is in the news. The US has renamed its Pacific Command to the Indo-Pacific Command, the shared regional vision outlined by India and Indonesia has emphasised its centrality, and the regionтАЩs political importance to India was at the core of the expansive foreign policy speech delivered by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Singapore. All of these are a response to the spectacular rise of China. If this points to a future concert of powers in the region to balance BeijingтАЩs power play, it will be an important yet insufficient measure in reaction to the Chinese project that connects Asia and Europe.

Covering 35% of the earthтАЩs surface, Eurasia is home to five billion people living in over 90 different countries and producing nearly 70% of global GDP. For millennia conquest, trade and migration have organically bound Asia and Europe тАУ the ebb and flow of great civilisations across this vast landmass spawned myriad political and economic dynamics of global history.

Only in the recent past, in historical terms, have these been interrupted. The Industrial Revolution in Europe and the subsequent colonisation of Asia and Africa created an artificial divide, concentrating economic and military power in тАШthe WestтАЩ.

AsiaтАЩs contemporary economic ascendance allows people, goods, innovation and finance to flow relatively freely across Eurasia again. But the re-emergence of the supercontinent is not frictionless. New integrative geo-economic forces bring with them new political tensions.

As history repeats and Eurasia coheres, the outlines of a new world order will be defined by who manages it and how it is managed. It is in this supercontinent that the future of democracy, of free markets and global security arrangements will be decided. And there are three key factors influencing this.

The first, to borrow a phrase from Robert Kaplan, is the revenge of geography. As much as Eurasian integration is organic, its current тАШavatarтАЩ is decidedly Chinese. Having assessed that the divide between Europe and Asia was an artificial, modern and тАШWesternтАЩ construct, China is doing what no other power had the appetite for: conceive of, define and then manage Eurasia.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), BeijingтАЩs choice of instrument, is creating sprawling networks of connectivity projects тАУ each designed to embed dependency on ChinaтАЩs economy into this geography.┬аSimultaneously, BRI dilutes the importance of the landmassтАЩs sub-regions, thereby upsetting settled balance of power arrangements.

India and the European Union (EU), for example, are struggling to curb ChinaтАЩs creeping influence on their sub-regional political, economic and security conversations.

A тАЬfree and openтАЭ Indo-Pacific vision, and nascent coalitions like the Quadrilateral initiative seek to balance ChinaтАЩs rise on the maritime front. The oceans, however, are but one of ChinaтАЩs platforms тАУ and a purely maritime response is inadequate.

China is relentless in pursuing this project: building infrastructure, facilitating trade, and creating alternative global institutions. Surreptitiously, China also exports its political model: тАЬcapitalism with Chinese characteristicsтАЭ тАУ a unique blend of state capitalism and authoritarianism. Unless liberal democracies propose an alternative in Eurasia that effectively addresses the infrastructure needs of countries in Asia and Africa, ChinaтАЩs proposition will succeed.

Here lies the second factor: the revenge of democracy. Whether it is the US, EU or India, democracies are more polarised than ever before. The Pew Global Attitude Survey consistently records that trust in democratic governments is at an all-time low. More than ever it appears that liberal democracies are bogged down by domestic crises, leaving them little energy for strategic planning. At a juncture when ChinaтАЩs timelines are decadal, democracies are struggling to look past their next election.

And the final factor, demography, is a double-edged sword for the entire region тАУ especially for China. For many Eurasian countries, BRIтАЩs economic benefits are obvious. However, in an era when nationalism is the defining mood of politics, ChinaтАЩs presence can be unwelcome.

ChinaтАЩs labour exports create tensions with younger host country populations who must now compete for employment opportunities. There is the risk that BRI will merely create infrastructure networks for extreme and radicalised organisations in unstable countries.

At home, demographic pressures might force Beijing to reconsider its ability to deliver. As younger Chinese move up the income ladder, their expectations from their government will increase. Simultaneously, the preponderance of single young men in urban regions and ageing rural populations makes Chinese society susceptible to violence and unrest. What will these demographic pressures portend for the project of Eurasian integration? Will the Chinese state have the political capital to recklessly buy influence across the world? Will demographic complexities allow others to cobble together a viable counter to the Beijing consensus?

Sitting in New Delhi, it cannot be more obvious that IndiaтАЩs development and security is inextricably tied to Eurasia. India sits at the crossroads of continental Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific тАУ the two regions that will define this century.

The US has expended blood and treasure over the past nine decades to maintain its privileged position in these two regions. Russia, the original Eurasian superpower, is reduced to a glorified policeman, or more charitably, a crafty risk management consultant for Chinese expansionism. And EU can either choose to be an actor or be acted upon, one slice at a time.

It is critical that all of them, and more particularly India and the US, imagine an arrangement beyond the Indo-Pacific, into the heart of Eurasia. ChinaтАЩs continental-sized poser┬аrequires a supercontinental answer. It is for the liberal world to stand up and be counted, or step aside and let Pax Sinica unfold.


This commentary originally appeared in┬аThe Times of India.

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Indo-pacific, Uncategorized

Eurasia: Larger than Indo-Pacific тАУ Liberal world must stand up and be counted, or step aside and watch Pax Sinica unfold

Original article┬а

тАЬIndo-PacificтАЭ is in the news. The US has renamed its Pacific Command to the Indo-Pacific Command, the shared regional vision outlined by India and Indonesia has emphasised its centrality, and the regionтАЩs political importance to India was at the core of the expansive foreign policy speech delivered by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Singapore. All of these are a response to the spectacular rise of China. If this points to a future concert of powers in the region to balance BeijingтАЩs power play, it will be an important yet insufficient measure in reaction to the Chinese project that connects Asia and Europe.

Covering 35% of the earthтАЩs surface, Eurasia is home to five billion people living in over 90 different countries and producing nearly 70% of global GDP. For millennia conquest, trade and migration have organically bound Asia and Europe тАУ the ebb and flow of great civilisations across this vast landmass spawned myriad political and economic dynamics of global history.

Only in the recent past, in historical terms, have these been interrupted. The Industrial Revolution in Europe and the subsequent colonisation of Asia and Africa created an artificial divide, concentrating on economic and military power in тАШthe WestтАЩ.

AsiaтАЩs contemporary economic ascendance allows people, goods, innovation and finance to flow relatively freely across Eurasia again. But the re-emergence of the supercontinent is not frictionless. New integrative geo-economic forces bring with them new political tensions.

As history repeats and Eurasia coheres, the outlines of a new world order will be defined by who manages it and how it is managed. It is in this supercontinent that the future of democracy, of free markets and global security arrangements, will be decided. And there are three key factors influencing this.

The first, to borrow a phrase from Robert Kaplan, is the revenge of geography. As much as Eurasian integration is organic, its current тАШavatarтАЩ is decidedly Chinese. Having assessed that the divide between Europe and Asia was an artificial, modern and тАШWesternтАЩ construct, China is doing what no other power had the appetite for: conceive of, define and then manage Eurasia.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), BeijingтАЩs choice of instrument, is creating sprawling networks of connectivity projects тАУ each designed to embed dependency on ChinaтАЩs economy into this geography.┬аSimultaneously, BRI dilutes the importance of the landmassтАЩs sub-regions, thereby upsetting the settled balance of power arrangements.

India and the European Union (EU), for example, are struggling to curb ChinaтАЩs creeping influence on their sub-regional political, economic and security conversations. A тАЬfree and openтАЭ Indo-Pacific vision, and nascent coalitions like the Quadrilateral initiative seek to balance ChinaтАЩs rise on the maritime front. The oceans, however, are but one of ChinaтАЩs platforms тАУ and a purely maritime response is inadequate.

China is relentless in pursuing this project: building infrastructure, facilitating trade, and creating alternative global institutions. Surreptitiously, China also exports its political model: тАЬcapitalism with Chinese characteristicsтАЭ тАУ a unique blend of state capitalism and authoritarianism. Unless liberal democracies propose an alternative in Eurasia that effectively addresses the infrastructure needs of countries in Asia and Africa, ChinaтАЩs proposition will succeed.

Here lies the second factor: the revenge of democracy. Whether it is the US, EU or India, democracies are more polarised than ever before. The Pew Global Attitude Survey consistently records that trust in democratic governments is at an all-time low. More than ever it appears that liberal democracies are bogged down by domestic crises, leaving them little energy for strategic planning. At a juncture when ChinaтАЩs timelines are decadal, democracies are struggling to look past their next election.

And the final factor, demography, is a double-edged sword for the entire region тАУ, especially for China. For many Eurasian countries, BRIтАЩs economic benefits are obvious. However, in an era when nationalism is the defining mood of politics, ChinaтАЩs presence can be unwelcome. ChinaтАЩs labour exports create tensions with younger host country populations who must now compete for employment opportunities. There is the risk that BRI will merely create infrastructure networks for extreme and radicalised organisations in unstable countries.

At home, demographic pressures might force Beijing to reconsider its ability to deliver. As younger Chinese move up the income ladder, their expectations from their government will increase. Simultaneously, the preponderance of single young men in urban regions and ageing rural populations makes Chinese society susceptible to violence and unrest. What will these demographic pressures portend for the project of Eurasian integration? Will the Chinese state have the political capital to recklessly buy influence across the world? Will demographic complexities allow others to cobble together a viable counter to the Beijing consensus?

Sitting in New Delhi, it cannot be more obvious that IndiaтАЩs development and security is inextricably tied to Eurasia. India sits at the crossroads of continental Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific тАУ the two regions that will define this century. The US has expended blood and treasure over the past nine decades to maintain its privileged position in these two regions. Russia, the original Eurasian superpower, is reduced to a glorified policeman, or more charitably, a crafty risk management consultant for Chinese expansionism. And EU can either choose to be an actor or be acted upon, one slice at a time.

It is critical that all of them, and more particularly India and the US, imagine an arrangement beyond the Indo-Pacific, into the heart of Eurasia. ChinaтАЩs continental-sized poser┬аrequires a supercontinental answer. It is for the liberal world to stand up and be counted, or step aside and let Pax Sinica unfold.

Author: Samir Saran, President of Observer Research Foundation.

 

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